Domino Theory Again By Donnel Jones, April 15, 2003

An editorial from the Wall Street Journal clarifies some confusion in my post of yesterday. If one takes the domino theory literally as Bush's critics have, then it is easy to see how unrealistic it is. On the other hand, if fire power in Iraq bears fruit in having North Korea learn some manners and indicate a willingness to hold multilateral talks with the U.S., then there is no argument that a chain reaction for the better can indeed come about.

Syria may also begin to cooperate now that the oil from Iraq is being turned off. Behaving as "terrorist express" for shipment of supplies and personnel will no longer keep that nation in the good graces of the U.S.

On that note: PLEASE WRITE TO YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO PASS THE SYRIA ACCOUNTABILITY ACT. For details, see the entry by my colleague, Andrew L. Jaffee, to the right of my post.

Maybe a post-war Iraq will serve as much needed house cleaning after all. But, back to the point, will this necessarily imply, or foretell, a brave new Muslim world ripe for democracy? Good behavior on the part of Kim Jong Il or Bashar Assad might mean their imminent and welcome demise but, if so, what comes next?

In Iraq, war has changed things drastically and for the better. Yet we don't know what comes after Saddam. Certainly there is great improvement, but will there be real democracy? If we don't know the answer to this question yet, in conditions concretely and drastically improved by war in Iraq, then how can we know what will follow the possible "change of heart" in North Korea and Syria?

None of this is meant to dampen spirits but to reflect on the unpredictability of events even if things bode well for now. Patience and endurance, as Fareed Zakaria has counseled, are necessary for the long haul. That, and the fearless hawk's eye.

Let's hope Kim Jong Il and Assad are toast. Only, let's entertain the much larger hope that real democracy will flourish in those countries. That, despite good signs, is the harder test.

Here's a little quiz. Point out the quote, in the following UPI news release, that is dead-wrong. It's short, so just go ahead and read it, then come back here.

Well, what do you think? Here's the answer: We said they should first give us freedom and them [sic] we would act as responsible Turkish citizens

That means they'll stop being terrorists if they're given their freedom? Remember the "zona de despeje," the area the size of Switzerland ceded to the guerilla group, FARC, as a condition for peace talks with the Colombian government? And what happened?

You guessed right. I really wish I had prizes for all of you smart people who know that terrorists CANNOT BE APPEASED. That should be Lesson 101 in the fine art of diplomacy. Pity the U.N. fails that course countless times

If the Kurdistan Workers' Party wants freedom, then maybe its members should start behaving first as citizens of Turkey as well as citizens of the civilized world.

Virtue never follows from unearned reward.