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U.S. GDP Growth Strong
By Andrew L. Jaffee, May 5, 2004 |
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U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 4.2% during the first three months of 2004, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This compares to GDP growth of 4.1% in the last three months of 2003. This is an unbelievable amount of economic growth for a country the size of the U.S. What these figures mean is that our economy grew from $10,600,100,000,000 -- $10.6 trillion -- to $10,708,600,000,000 -- $10.7 trillion -- in just 3 months. In other words, American writers, computer programmers, auto workers, painters, grant writers, etc., produced/sold about $100 billion more in goods and services than they did just three months ago. Astounding. Based on GDP alone, the U.S. has resoundingly recovered from the post-party-like-its-1999 recession. From BEA statistics, I prepared the chart shown below. Note the negative growth during 2000/2001 but the steady increase in growth since then.
And just revealed today, the U.S. services sector showed better-than-expected growth in April. Services have been growing for 13 consecutive months. This is great news for Americans -- like computer programmers -- worried about their jobs being shipped overseas. And the good economic news keeps coming. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, orders for durable goods soared 3.4% in March. The number for February orders was revised upward to a rise of 3.8%. Durable goods are defined as products with a normal life expectancy of three years or more, like furniture, aircraft, computers, and automobiles. The Labor Department reported that 308,000 U.S. jobs were created in March, and 759,000 total have been added since August. Some are now arguing that all this good economic news will lead the Federal Reserve, led by Allan Greenspan, to raise interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation. The Fed will probably have to raise rates at some point, but that’s their job. The Fed raises rates when it wants to curb the nation's money supply, making it harder for entrepreneurs to borrow money. Let’s hope Greenspan is more cautious this time around. He panicked during the last boom and pushed up rates too fast, and left the stock and bond markets -- and the rest of our economy -- reeling. I’d rather take my chances with good economic growth. Better that people be employed than unemployed. I’m just waiting to hear how Democrats will try to put a negative spin on all the good news. |