Iraqi majority optimistic, believe life is better, ask “what civil war?”
March 18, 2007, 1:56 pm |
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By Andrew L. Jaffee
Just when it seems the darkest in Iraq, the people there seem to believe otherwise. I admit, like many other Americans, to being war-weary. And who could blame Americans for getting tired of seeing the daily carnage in Iraq, like yesterday’s chlorine gas attack? Yet three articles from the Times Online today show that, from an Iraqi perspective, removing Saddam was the right thing to do, and that Bush’s troop surge should be given a chance to work. These articles confirm my belief that the top leadership of the Democratic Party, not necessarily the rank and file, want to see the Iraq effort fail just to get another dig into Bush (Monica Lewinsky all over again, just switch the party names). Here’s a summary of the good news, with links to the original stories — all must-reads:
Iraqis: life is getting better: “MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today…”
Violence slashed as troop surge hits Baghdad: “…but now there are a lot more Iraqi army checkpoints and I’m feeling more secure. I feel better; I can go out and do my shopping. More people have opened their stores and the markets are open longer…”
Resilient Iraqis ask what civil war?: “The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war…”
Click for some poll and other highlights
Click here for the raw poll numbers.
Finally, a question I’ve asked many times: If things were so bad in Iraq, then why does the dinar keep appreciating in value? I make it a practice not to ignore financial markets when trying to balance the human equation. Early on, I’d say there was speculation in the Iraqi dinar. After 3 years of unrelenting Muslim-on-Muslim violence, I’d say all the bad news has already been priced into the dinar.
- Click here for the raw poll numbers.
- “poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey”
- # surveyed: “5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18″
- coverage: “400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq”
- “survey is a rare snapshot of Iraqi opinion because of the difficulty of working in the country”
- “Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government”
- “by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services”
- “only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war”
- “Figures released last week by Brigadier Qassim al-Moussawi, an Iraqi military spokesman, showed civilian deaths down from 1,440 in the four weeks before the surge began on February 14 to 265 in the four weeks that followed, although there may have been some undercounting. According to the American military, assassination attempts were down by 50%.”
- “The number of US deaths was also down, from 87 to 66, although the concentration of troops in Baghdad led to an increase of 12% in fatalities in the capital.”
Related: United States, Iraq
March 18th, 2007 at 7:25 pm
I’ve done a complete breakdown on this survey here.
The Time’s statement that “most Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein” is somewhat misleading, as they are basing this claim on a question which asks people whether they prefer the previous political system or the current one, and not one which specifically asks whether they believe life is better.
There are also many things the poll finds that the Times aren’t reporting on:
Amongst other things, the poll says:
- 26% of those surveyed nationwide said they’d had a family member or relative killed within the past three years. These numbers are even higher outside of Kurdish territory, where only 5% report losing a family member.
- Less than 1/3rd of Iraqis believe that the recent U.S. surge was intended to increase security in Iraq. More Iraqis believe the actual goal is to depose the existing government, establish U.S. control of Iraq, attack Iraq’s neighbors, or to kill and destroy Iraqis.
- 53% of Iraqis believe that the security situation will improve in Iraq once Coalition forces withdraw, as compared to only 32% who disagree. The percentage of Iraqis who think a Coalition withdrawl would be beneficial increases very significantly if you disregard the Kurdish region of Iraq, where only 15% of the population think that security would improve without Coalition forces.
- Only 15% of Kurds approve of the current governmental system. Most want an independent government. Shi’a, however, overwhelmingly support a strong, central government that imposes its will over the rest of the country. This could lead to significant conflicts in the future.
Among those with a clear preference, the Sunni in Iraq prefered the political system under Saddam by a nearly 2-1 margin. Over 26% of Iraq’s Shi’a believe that the current political system in Iraq is just as bad or worse than the political system under Saddam.
- Approximately 60% of respondents considered themselves unemployed. Those percentages are even higher if you disregard the Kurdish region, where only about 50% were unemployed. These unemployment figures are approximately the same as was seen in the months following the invasion — they have not improved noticeably in years.
Lastly, although the survey polled residents in “every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq”, the choice of places within those governates for their clusters seems skewed. Indeed, it appears that the data gathered in Anbar province, for example, was gathered in the far west of Iraq near Ar Rutbah, with no data from cities such as Fallujah, Ramadi, or Samarra. Much of the Sunni triangle is simply overlooked, even in situations such as Fallujah where there is a strong U.S. pacification presence allowing for surveys.
Similar issues could be raised with their Baghdad surveying. Did they go into Sadr City? I suspect not.
So, while the poll tries to represent Iraq, there are a lot of questions as to whether it is representative of Iraqis.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
So, as a short summation on what can be determined from this poll:
1> The poll is pretty poorly constructed, and not very clear about Iraqi intent.
2> The Iraqis are very divided, both societally and in opinion. The Sunni want power. The Kurds want independence. The Shi’a want majority rule and are largely uncaring / in denial of / don’t care a bit about what either the Kurds or Sunni want.
3> The Shi’a and Sunni both seem to think the U.S. should leave, but largely for very different reasons. More of the Kurds, however, want the U.S. to stay, perhaps as a buffer against a Shi’a-led tyranny of the majority.
None of these are good signs, as far as ending the violence anytime soon.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
I don’t really agree with your analysis. I would invite readers to find out for themselves. On this 4th anniversary of the Iraq invasion, here’s an interesting litany of facts from the UK, and here’s the full text of one of the Times articles:
DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.
The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.
The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war.
Officials in Washington and London are likely to be buoyed by the poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey of 5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18.
The 400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq last month found that the sense of security felt by Baghdad residents had significantly improved since polling carried out before the US announced in January that it was sending in a “surge” of more than 20,000 extra troops.
The poll highlights the impact the sectarian violence has had. Some 26% of Iraqis - 15% of Sunnis and 34% of Shi’ites - have suffered the murder of a family member. Kidnapping has also played a terrifying role: 14% have had a relative, friend or colleague abducted, rising to 33% in Baghdad.
Yet 49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer.
Not surprisingly, the divisions in Iraqi society were reflected in statistics — Sunnis were more likely to back the previous Ba’athist regime (51%) while the Shi’ites (66%) preferred the Maliki government.
Maliki, who derives a significant element of his support from Moqtada al-Sadr, the hardline Shi’ite militant, and his Mahdi army, has begun trying to overcome criticism that his government favours the Shi’ites, going out of his way to be seen with Sunni tribal leaders. He is also under pressure from the US to include more Sunnis in an expected government reshuffle.
The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister.
Another surprise was that only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war. Again, that number divided along religious lines, with 41% of Sunnis believing Iraq was in a civil war, compared with only 15% of Shi’ites.
The survey is a rare snapshot of Iraqi opinion because of the difficulty of working in the country, with the exception of Kurdish areas which are run as an essentially autonomous province.
Most international organisations have pulled out of Iraq and diplomats are mostly holed-up in the Green Zone. The unexpected degree of optimism may signal a groundswell of hope at signs the American “surge” is starting to take effect.
This weekend comments from Baghdad residents reflected the poll’s findings. Many said they were starting to feel more secure on the streets, although horrific bombings have continued. “The Americans have checkpoints and the most important thing is they don’t ask for ID, whether you are Sunni or Shi’ite,” said one resident. “There are no more fake checkpoints so you don’t need to be scared.”
The inhabitants of a northern Baghdad district were heartened to see on the concrete blocks protecting an Iraqi army checkpoint the lettering: “Down, down with the militias, we are fighting for the sake of Iraq.”
It would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Residents said they noted that armed militias were off the streets.
One question showed the sharp divide in attitudes towards the continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Some 53% of Iraqis nationwide agree that the security situation will improve in the weeks after a withdrawal by international forces, while only 26% think it will get worse.
“We’ve been polling in Iraq since 2005 and the finding that most surprised us was how many Iraqis expressed support for the present government,” said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB. “Given the level of violence in Iraq, it shows an unexpected level of optimism.”
Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government.
One statistic that bodes ill for Iraq’s future is the number who have fled the country, many of them middle-class professionals. Baghdad has been hard hit by the brain drain — 35% said a family member had left the country.
Additional reporting: Ali Rifat
ORB interviewed a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults between February 10-22. The margin of error was +/- 1.4%.
March 19th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Click here for the raw poll numbers.