By Douglas Farah*

I am not optimistic about Iraq. But there a few glimmers that make me think that, for reasons that have little to do directly with U.S. policy, the situation, at least as far as al Qaeda-related groups go, may improve.

The most important is the apparent new willingness of Sunni groups to confront al Qaeda without U.S. assistance.

The reports of fighting in western Baghdad between Sunni groups and al Qaeda-linked groups, as well as a turn against al Qaeda by some of the tribal leaders in Anbar province show that the jihadist inability to compromise on any issue, while a great motivating factor and recruitment tool, cuts both ways.

Eventually, one kills too many of one’s own, alienating many potential allies. My first contact with this was with the FMLN in El Salvador. A rebel leader in San Vicente began executing everyone he suspected of being ideologically deviant, then all who might become traitors to the cause.

By the end, more than 250 people had been executed and the FMLN had to assassinate the commander. But the cost was that the rebels lost hold in the region and never regained it. The fragile popular trust was gone.

It seems from a bit of a distance that the unwillingness or inability of the al Qaeda-led factions to build and maintain long-term coalitions is one of their greatest potential weaknesses. My full blog is here.

*Counterterrorism Blog
June 1, 2007
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/06/
possible_glimmer_of_some_modes.php
Cross-posted with permission

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Related: War Against Islamo-fascism, Iraq

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