Barry Rubin: Secular or Islamist still on Turks’ minds
July 30, 2007, 11:53 am |
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By Barry Rubin
*Is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) going to make Turkey Islamist or not?
Which path the victorious party of the July 22 voting will take the country down is the main question Professor Barry Rubin asks while evaluating the situation after a suspenseful election process.
Rubin, director of the Global Research for International Affairs Center, a research center located at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya (IDC), said the AK Party, which won 47 percent of the vote in the July 22 election and will have almost two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, is a pragmatic, conservative and business-oriented moderate party despite its roots as an Islamic-oriented one.
However, he added that in societal terms, the party probably is up to transforming Turkey from a secular into a more Islamic society.
“There is a lot of evidence that the AK Party is moderate and democratic, both in terms of its behavior and composition. The party’s leader, Tayyip Erdooan, made a very conciliatory speech after the election, hitting all the right notes to calm any concerns Turks might have about his intentions,” he said.
But Rubin said the AK Party needs to pass some tests to gain people’s trust — the first one being the presidency and then the important appointments.”On the other hand, [Foreign Minister] Mr. [Abdullah] Gul’s press conference [on July 25] showed something else, a greater confidence and desire to make demands. So if you compare these two speeches, you get a very good idea of the two options in front of the party.”
Rubin, who was in Turkey for meetings and observations about the election, said that Turks hope Erdogan’s remarks point to the direction Turkey will pursue.
After a round table meeting arranged by the ARI Movement, an independent Turkish youth organization involved in high-level debates about regional security issues, Rubin answered questions for Today’s Zaman.
*In one of your articles you asked if Turkey will Islamify? What did you mean by that?
I made up a new word because Islamism is a radical, political philosophy that says Islam should rule politically. Islamic is a word that refers to the religion. The word Islamify is somewhere in between. Now you have secularism. Is the situation going to move from secularism — with religion in second place — to an open system where both are equal? Or is it going to tip over to a third situation, one in which what some people define as proper Islamic behavior will rule and then people who don’t do that are going to be punished? What’s Turkey going to be like in 15 or 20 years? That’s the question.
*What do you think Turkey is going to be like?
I don’t know. Nobody knows. No matter what party you support or who you are, nobody knows what’s going to happen. No one knows if this government will last three years or 20 years.
*Why do you think there is such unpredictability?
What the leadership of the AK Party really wants is important. They’ve turned the corner and now they are moderate conservatives with the image of being a family values and a business-oriented party whose historical roots are not so important. That’s possible. Or is this a party many of whose members want to create a new kind of society in Turkey?
*So what are the criteria for evaluating the AK Party’s route?
There are three areas to look at. First of all foreign policy; the old position of a Turkey allied with the West is no longer true. Secondly, social factors; what happens when social changes and pressures affect people. For example, there is reason to believe that certain companies feel that they may not get government contracts any more because they don’t take the right political stand. And is that true and is that going to happen? Is there going to be favoritism? Is there going to be pressure on people in their jobs?
*Should the AK Party redefine what it stands for?
The question is what they stand for. If they are moderate and don’t make much change over the way they have governed for the past five years, and if they pick a president everyone likes, then people will continue to believe that the party is in fact moderate and centrist. They have to continue to prove themselves. The danger here is triumphalism. It means that if you feel like you win totally, you can do whatever you want. If the leadership says we’ve won 47 percent, we’re the party of the people, and we can do whatever we want, then a lot of voters might change their minds. The question is: Is [Prime Minister] Erdooan smarter than that? So far he has been. If he is not, then the party is going to go down, and in three years people are going to vote them out of office. So a lot depends on Erdo?an. What is he thinking right now? His speech after the election indicated something.
*What did it indicate?
That he understands this danger. But on the other hand [Foreign Minister] Mr. [Abdullah] Gul’s press conference [on July 25] showed something else, a greater confidence and desire to make demands. So if you compare these two speeches, you get a very good idea of the two options in front of the party.
*You think Gul’s speech at the press conference didn’t help Prime Minister Erdooan much?
I think [it is interesting] to compare these two speeches; Erdooan’s speech was very conciliatory. And I talked to people and they said they were really impressed, although they were opponents of the party, that this is what they wanted to hear — that they [the AK Party] would continue to try to bring everyone together, not do anything extreme and keep the country on its course. But at Mr. Gul’s press conference, he was saying the election was a referendum about him being president; they won and this shows the people want him to be president. This is, of course, their first-right decision — who to choose to be the president. Whereas, Mr. Erdooan in his speech was saying, we understand that we can do what we want to do because we were elected on the basis of being a centrist party. There are problems including one very big one, maybe two very big ones.
*What are they?
Actually, I think there are three problems. Are they are going to continue on what they have worked on until know? Turkey has three basic choices: secularism, an open system or a more Islamic system. I think the party clearly intends to move Turkey from secularism to a more even system, to a more open system of equality between the secular and the religious. The question is, they’ve now reached the point, some of the main decisions are going to be made about that move.
*What main decisions?
Who can be an army officer? Can you be an AK Party supporter and strongly practicing as an army officer? What kind of judges are you going to have? Are you going to have judges who may make ruling more because of considerations of Islamic law? What are you going to do with the educational system? Are you going to have equality between the Islamic — the prayer leaders’– schools and the government schools? And each of these decisions is going to be very controversial; how will they handle them, how hard will they push, how quickly will they move? So, that’s the first problem. And a lot of that is tied up with the presidency because the president can make certain decisions.
*You’ve mentioned three problems…
The second problem, I think, is the problem of the economy. I don’t think there is any question that the good state of the economy was perhaps the single most important issue in the election, but can they keep this up? And there are certain dangerous sides. A key element of the success is the high interest rates. But if you continue the high interest rates, you have to pay the interest. And it is possible that at some point there could be a major crisis. Especially because this could mean that money is flowing out of Turkey. So, what happens if the economy doesn’t do well? Will that mean they’d lose their support? That would bring a lot of political change.
*And what is the third problem?
The third big problem issue is foreign policy. The most important issue in the Middle East and perhaps in the world is the question of radical Islamism. Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, it’s becoming more powerful. There is a war in Iraq between two groups, I mean Sunnis and Shiites are the Islamist movements, and the Iraqi government is strongly Islamic flavored. You have the problem of Hezbollah trying to take over Lebanon. You have a problem of Syria even though it is a relatively secular regime, but is acting as if it were Islamist and supporting Islamist movements. You have Hamas trying to take over, perhaps taking over the Palestinian movement, the Muslim brothers… The US to some extent and the West in general are against this development. But the Turkish government under the AK Party does not view these forces as enemies. I think it’s important to remember that even if within Turkey, the party is not necessarily so Islamist, internationally it sees these as friends. ! This puts it [the AK Party] on the opposite side of the West.
*What do you think of the reporting of the election in the Western media?
I think that the problem with the media coverage is that it doesn’t reflect the issues and the problems, complexities I’ve talked about. It tended to be,”These people are moderate, it’s okay, don’t worry and everything is fine.” And I am not saying it should be negative and say,”This is terrible, Turkey is going to become an Islamic state.” But I do think it should be more even-handed, and the problem is that the Western media coverage sees Turkey in terms of what the people who write it are thinking.
*So you think Turkey is really unique…
Totally unique people, unique history and the whole approach is completely different. The existence of the AK Party as it is, is totally unique. That’s by the way an important point. Because in the Western media coverage they want to say,”Turkey will be a model to other Muslim majority countries and Turkey will be a model for the Arab world.” I have to tell you, in 35 years of working in the Middle East I have never heard any Arab view Turkey as a model. Turkey is Turkey, and it deserves the respect of studying it separately. I feel very strongly that this is not going to help Turkey in terms of the European Union. Because I don’t think that the French, German and other governments are saying:”Oh, Turkey now has half the population voting for an Islam-oriented party, that’s no problem.” I think they’re going to be scared. I think that the government reaction in Europe is totally different from the European media reaction and I think in the US it’s somewhat different. I think t! here are certain people in the US government who are going to say,”This is good because this is moderate Islam.” But I don’t believe that the majority of the people in the US government are happy about it. I think they’re happy that it happened peacefully, they’re glad the AK Party is centrist rather than not.
*Could you elaborate on the relationship between Turkey and the United States?
Although no one is going to say so in the government, the nature of the relationship between Turkey and the US has changed in very big way. That’s my job to say things that no one else wants to say. I think that between 1946, and I don’t know what year, should I say 2002 or 2003, Turkey and the US were ally countries. And I don’t think they’re ally countries today. Not because of northern Iraq, simply because the Turkish government is on the other side. The government is on the other side on key issues. And the Kurdish issue is important for Turkey, but the Kurdish issue is not the problem; the Kurdish issue is the result. The Kurdish issue is important, but it is not the only issue for Turkey. In Iran right now, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; is this the person you want to have as your closest ally? The AK Party has avoided the [former Prime Minister Necmettin] Erbakan’s foreign policy but it is in some way in that direction. I don’t think that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is goo! d for the Turkish interests. I don’t think that the gulf dominated by Iran is good for the Turkish interests.
*You don’t mean Turkey and the US are enemies now…
It’s very easy to misunderstand my words. Countries can be enemies; they can be allies; they could be friendly and they could have good relations. Turkey and the US are not enemies, but they are not allies; they have good relations. And incidentally the same thing applies to Europe. I think, under an AK Party government, Turkey will have good relations with Europe.
*Do you see that happening?
There is no respective opposition. The collapse of central-right parties, the True Path Party [DYP], the Motherland Party [ANAVATAN], there is no big central right party; that’s problem number one. Problem number two is the paralysis of the CHP [Republican People’s Party]. [The head of the CHP] Mr. [Deniz] Baykal seems to be set to be in power for the rest of the 21st century. I mean he doesn’t seem able to do the job. Maybe the next party that’ll govern Turkey would be the MHP [Nationalist Movement Party] if people get tired of the AK Party, and if the CHP cannot increase its votes, and there’s no center-right party. Where are people going to turn? And the MHP could become a centrist party that could govern. Is that going to happen or not, again we don’t know. So the election wasn’t the end of history; the election is the beginning of what may be — some people would think this is exaggerating it — but what may be the second or third big era in the history of the Turkish Republic.
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=117857
Barry Rubin is Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Interdisciplinary Center university. His latest book, The Truth about Syria
was published by Palgrave-Macmillan in May 2007. Prof. Rubin’s columns can be read online at: http://gloria.idc.ac.il/articles/index.html.The Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center
Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya P.O. Box 167 Herzliya, 46150 Israel
Email: gloria@idc.ac.il Phone: +972-9-960-2736 Fax: +972-9-956-8605
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Related: Islam, Turkey, Elections, Philosophy / Ideology