By Andrew L. Jaffee

While it is too soon to make a judgment long-term, short-term Dubya’s troop surge is working. Civilian deaths are down, U.S. troop casualties are down, Sunnis are turning away from al-Qaeda, and now, Iraqi refugees are coming home:

In a dramatic turnaround, more than 3,000 Iraqi families driven out of their Baghdad neighborhoods have returned to their homes in the past three months as sectarian violence has dropped, the government said Saturday.

… the Khadra neighborhood Awakening Council rose up against brutal al-Qaida control — the imposition of its austere interpretation of Islam, along with the murder and torture of those who would not comply.

The uprising originated in Iraq’s west and flowed into the capital. Earlier this year, the Sunni tribes and clans in the vast Anbar province began their own revolt and have successfully rid the largely desert region of al-Qaida control. …

And as 30,000 additional U.S. forces arrived for the crackdown in Baghdad and central Iraq, the American commander, Gen. David Petraeus, began stationing many of them in neighborhood outposts. The mission was not only to take back control but to foster neighborhood groups like the one in Khadra to shake off al-Qaida’s grip. …

We call it “neighborhood watch.” Iraqis are sharp. They’ll catch on.