~by E.D. Kain

“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”

~WInston Churchill

The Russians are tricky. They have suckered the world into thinking that they are a more peaceful, progressive nation than they were during the Soviet era. We have been duped into believing this over the years, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. Now, as Georgia burns, and the world wonders whether a ceasefire will hold or whether Putin’s puppet Medvedev will simply (as the Russians so often do) say one thing and do another…

Neo-Neocon writes:

The fact is that, unless we are willing to back up our rhetoric with military force or the meaningful sanctions to which Europe seems averse, talk is cheap. And if you compare Obama’s statement on the topic with that of McCain, you’ll find that both contain some meaningless cheap talk of the “the Security Council needs to condemn this” variety (at least McCain acknowledges the Russian threat of a veto; Obama does not).

For the rest of the article, read Russia and Georgia, and wars cold and hot: the Kingdom of Earth.

Her prose is really quite excellent, and it was this piece, along with an interview on NPR with Marshall Goldman, author of Petrostate, that made me write yet another piece on the Georgian conflict.

For those of us old enough to remember the most frigid days of the long Cold War, the recent Russian military action in Georgia has a familiar ring.

Not exactly, of course; history never repeats itself, it merely rhymes—and sometimes the rhyme is only near-rhyme. But I agree with pundits who write that this latest action of Russia (I keep wanting to write “the Soviet Union,” an urge I haven’t had in many years) is a naked power play to reassert its dominance over nearby countries that used to be its territories and/or satellites. This boldness on the part of Russia comes in part from its perception that the Western powers lack political unity and/or military will, and the knowledge that some of Europe is under thrall to its dependence on Russian natural gas.

This subject of Russia’s resources should be of utmost importance and interest to policy-makers in the US and Europe. Russia has become the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, and they use this to their advantage. They are also moving in a direction that could make them one of the world’s top producers of grain.

43% of Germany’s natural gas is purchased from Russia. Other European nations face similar numbers. It’s not hard to see how they may be daunted about truly confronting Russia–even with sanctions.

The question of oil seems to always rise up during these conflicts–and it should also be considered here. This conflict is one that does, most assuredly, have to do with the control and transport of oil. The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline which runs through Georgia has been shut down by BP after some reports show that it has been bombed by Russian airstrikes.

Fighting in Georgia threatens a strategic energy hub, the IEA warned on Tuesday, shortly before Georgia said Russia had attacked a pipeline normally carrying up to a million barrels of oil a day westwards.

The International Energy Agency said that events in Georgia had not affected the price of oil, but stressed the significance of the region to energy supplies.

The Russians covet Georgian control of pipeline access to Europe, and the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a thorn in their side, as it winds its way from the Azerbaijan capital Baku all the way to Turkey.

In fact,

Georgia is a crucial link in a three-country energy corridor, vital to western Europe’s oil and gas supply. The pounds $3.8 billion pipeline is the only major conduit for Central Asian resources not under Russian control.

This is a telling fact, as is the reality that BP has shut this line down after it was struck by at least 51 Russian missiles.

The question now is what would have happened should Georgia have been a NATO member? Will such a membership be granted, as President Bush has advocated? Or will Georgia and the rest of the Caucuses realize that the West is full of promises, but little action–that the risk posed by actually having to act in defense of our allies is too great a risk to take.

Europe is hobbled by its dependence on Russian oil and natural gas. The United States cannot go it alone and risk igniting yet another lonely war, only this time with a far greater enemy than the suicide bombers Baghdad has offered up.

So we shall wait and see what Russia does. Any other “action” seems unlikely. The stranglehold Russia holds over Europe will only tighten if they should gain control over Georgia’s pipeline. Our alliance with Europe will only fragment more should this occur.

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Related: United States, Europe, Dictator Watch, Balkans, Communism / Socialism, Russia, United Nations (UN)

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