By Andrew L. Jaffee

North Korea is controlled by a very dangerous regime: It threatened today to “reduce everything… [in South Korea] to debris.” North and South Koreans are the same people, with many family and friends separated by a line in the sand, and yet the North Korean leadership would destroy its own kindred, all because of a very minor, perceived “offense” committed by a Southern group opposed to the North’s Fearless Leader, Kim Jong-Il. From AFP:

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by Arash Sigarchi*

Arash Sigarchi, former editor of Gilan-e Emrooz, was the subject of the Middle East Quarterly’s Dissident Watch in the fall 2005 issue. He recently received asylum in the United States. This article is adapted from a speech he gave at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., on February 4, 2008. - The Editors.

I was a newspaper journalist in the Islamic Republic, but censorship forced me to blog. My blogging led to my arrest and eventual departure from my homeland. To comprehend how pervasive censorship is in Iran today and how difficult it is for Iranians to access a wide range of accurate information about everyday news, it is essential to understand how the Iranian government censors journalists. Iranian censorship is enforced by six major entities.

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By Barry Rubin

The return of Russian power in the Middle East, next to Iran’s nuclear weapons’ campaign, is the region’s most important new issue. While far less threatening than the Soviet bloc’s Cold War backing for radical Arab states, this development poses some major problems for U.S. leaders, Israeli interests, and Middle East politics.

Between 1956 and 1990, the Soviet Union bestrode the regional stage like a colossus, the alternative model and sponsor that indirectly inspired, armed, and protected the domination of radical Arab nationalist regimes, groups, and ideas. Moscow’s goals were to win the competition with the United States, extend its influence, and gain access to strategic locations and resources.

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by Ali Alfoneh*

Almost three decades after the Islamic Republic’s founding, former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders are infiltrating the political, economic, and cultural life of Iran. Half the members of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet are former IRGC officers,[1] and he has appointed several IRGC officers to provincial governorships. The IRGC’s rise has been deliberate. Facing both external opposition to Tehran’s pursuit of an indigenous nuclear enrichment capability and internal pressures for political and economic reforms, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei considers the IRGC officer corps more apt at crisis management than the bureaucratic teams of either former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-97) or Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005). IRGC chief General Mohammad Ali Ja’fari’s announcement of internal restructuring to prepare the IRGC to counter “internal threats to the Islamic Republic”[2] reflects the organization’s expanding role. The Council of Guardians, which screens candidates before elections, privileged IRGC veterans, who won the bulk of seats in the March 2008 parliamentary elections. Whereas there has always been tension within the Islamic Republic’s elite concerning whether the Revolutionary Guards’ political or military role should be dominant, recent shifts suggest the debate is concluding as the IRGC cements a commanding influence over political decision-making.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

When Putin doesn’t like bad press, he has the source killed. Pretty simple — for a tyrant, that is:

The owner of an internet site critical of the Russian authorities in the volatile region of Ingushetia has been shot dead in police custody.

Magomed Yevloyev, owner of the ingushetiya.ru site, was a vocal critic of the region’s administration. …

This is Putin’s “democracy:” executing website owners in police custody, shutting down the free press, assassinating journalists (Anna Politkovskaya), poisoning dissidents (Litvinenko), grabbing private companies (Yukos) for his own portfolio, interfering in Ukraine’s elections (poisoning the opposition candidate), rigging Russia’s elections, bullying Estonia for no reason, trying to rig the Ukraine’s elections and poisoning presidential candidate Yushchenko, supplying weapons to South Ossetian extremists, violating Norwegian airspace, keeping a military force in Moldova, etc. And of course, invading little Georgia.

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By Uzi Dayan and Jonathan Spyer

The current indirect talks between Israel and Syria are highly unlikely to result in a peace agreement. The talks, far from playing any positive role for Israel, are mistaken both in terms of our values and in terms of our practical interest. They are being conducted by an irresponsible government with no public mandate, and are already causing real harm. We should be working to isolate the Syrian regime, not rehabilitating it.

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By Jonathan Spyer

President Bashar Assad of Syria began a trip to Russia this week. Russian news agency RIA Novosti has quoted the Syrian Information Ministry as confirming that the trip will last two days.

According to the statement, the purpose of the trip is to discuss bilateral relations and the latest world and regional developments, particularly relating to the Middle East peace process and to Iraq.

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By Barry Rubin

The great battle of our younger years was between Communism and democratic liberalism. Its contemporary equivalent is Arab nationalism versus Islamism.

That implies some extremely important, often misunderstood, conclusions:

First, regrettably but true, democracy isn’t in the running. The problem is not just that cynical rulers mislead the masses through demagoguery-though that’s true; it’s that the masses embrace extremist world views.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Russian President Putin’s goon-squad is using “’scorched-earth’ tactics” in Georgia, has promised to annex territory (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), and now is threatening to attack Poland. This is pure madness, but look at the reaction from Europe (or, should I say, lack thereof?), as described by the brave Russian soul, Garry Kasparov:

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~by E.D. Kain

“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”

~WInston Churchill

The Russians are tricky. They have suckered the world into thinking that they are a more peaceful, progressive nation than they were during the Soviet era. We have been duped into believing this over the years, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. Now, as Georgia burns, and the world wonders whether a ceasefire will hold or whether Putin’s puppet Medvedev will simply (as the Russians so often do) say one thing and do another…

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By Douglas Farah*

I am not a Russia expert and defer to Robert Kagan and others to paint the macro picture of what Russia’s incursion into Georgia means.

But there are several issues, outside of these, that need to be looked at in terms of Russia in the greater world, and our relationship to Russia, particularly in counter-terrorism and weapons proliferation issues.

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By Canadian Coalition for Democracies

Ottawa, Canada - Russia’s invasion of Georgia has made public the brutal face of the Russian bear. Again, Russia has set out to crush independence, undermine sovereignty and mock the democratic aspirations of its former vassal states. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had set back the Russian bear only momentarily, its weakness and lies exposed. But the Russian bear has returned menacingly and turned the clock back to 1968 when it crushed the Prague spring as it is doing today in Georgia.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Reuters reported today that, “Some International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday.” Now, why is it that so many people with consciences resent “international” organizations like the United Nations (UN) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC)? This moral relativism, this treating tyrannies like China and Iran as equals with democracies like Canada and Denmark, is downright repulsive. But the IOC is helping China erase human rights.

And it’s not just “international organizations,” but businesses like networking giant Cisco Systems, who’ve helped dictatorships like China repress their own people (also click on this link to read more on how China uses technology to strangle Internet access).

Here’s more distasteful news on the Beijing Olympics from Reuters:

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By Phyllis Chesler

The monster was hiding in plain sight–working as a holistic healer, a health guru. I am talking about Dr. Radovan Karadzic of course who has finally been captured by his own people, not because his crimes repulsed them, (he was viewed as a hero), but rather in the hope that his capture and extradition to the Hague might soften their image as a rogue nation and lead to an economically profitable membership in the European Union. … (Continue reading…)

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By Barry Rubin

Each day we’re told that radical Islamists, terrorists, and assorted extremists are going to moderate, so why not negotiate with them, appease them, defuse their grievances, have dialog, and then everything will be okay.

But, those who are doubtful, argue, shouldn’t we have learned from history that militant ideologies are not prone to compromise and ruthless dictators don’t change their stripes. You cannot appease them, they don’t go away; displays of weakness make them more aggressive.

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