By Barry Rubin

Egyptian President Husni Mubarak is 80. After over a quarter-century in office he is ready for more. But how much longer will his rule–or regime–continue?

And under him, Egypt has not done so badly, or has it?

Well that depends. He has kept Egypt stable and out of war, no mean feat, and even delivered a bit of economic development, though recently there have been bread riots. But there has been no big improvement.

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WASHINGTON (April 2008) — A new report from the Center for Immigration Studies demonstrates that most H-1Bs are ordinary people doing ordinary work, not the geniuses claimed by industry lobbyists.

Those arguing for an increase in the number of H-1B visas (ostensibly temporary visas for ’specialty occupations,’ many of them in the computer industry) claim that continued U.S. leadership in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics hinges on our ability to import the world’s best engineers and scientists. But this new data analysis shows that the vast majority of H-1B workers — including those at most major tech firms — are not the innovators industry portrays them to be.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

The Absolut Vodka company recently ran an ad campaign which re-drew the map of North America, showing California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas as re-conquered by Mexico. The Absolut ad’s sentiments coincide with radical Latino groups who expouse “anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism, homophobia and other expressions of hatred.” Absolut has apologized for its ridiculous ad, but too little, too late. Vote with your wallet — buy SKYY Vodka, made in the USA:

… In 1848, the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo officially ended the Mexican-America War (1846-1848). With the signing of this treaty, the United States gained control of what was to become the Golden West, including California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada and parts of Colorado and New Mexico. Today, SKYY® Vodka, the number-one vodka produced in the United States, spoke out against suggestions by Absolut® Vodka to disregard that treaty, as well as the joining of Texas to the Union in 1845, as depicted in Absolut’s recent advertising.

“Like SKYY Vodka, the residents of states like California, Texas and Arizona are exceptionally proud of the fact that they are from the United States of America,” said Dave Karraker, SKYY Vodka. “To imply that they might be interested in changing their mailing addresses, as our competitor seems to be suggesting in their advertising, is a bit presumptuous.” …

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

So now, “THE Absolut vodka company has apologised for an advertising campaign depicting the south-western United States as part of Mexico…” This “depiction” is the same sentiment advocated by the Nation of Aztlan, which “calls for the United States to return ‘Aztlan’ territory - Aztlan being the mythic homeland of the Mexican people, or Aztecs, which according to legend is found in the American Southwest or Northern Mexico. The group’s nationalist message is blurred by frequent appeals anti-Semitism, anti-Zionism, homophobia and other expressions of hatred.” Isn’t that special? Absolut sure has a strange (offensive? hateful?) — idea of its target audience. Here’s an example of the Absolut campaign imagery:

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by Nimrod Raphaeli and Bianca Gersten*

Countries have used sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as instruments through which to buy assets with their surplus foreign exchange since the 1950s when Norway and Singapore, and soon after Kuwait, sought new strategies to insulate themselves from exchange rate fluctuation. Central banks employed SWFs only as buffers for currency stabilization when countries had little or no international debt and large current account surpluses. Today, SWFs have become quite common. As of March 2007, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia had, respectively, the first and third largest SWFs internationally, and Kuwait ranked sixth.[1] Because of burgeoning oil prices, Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds have become the preferred investment vehicles of Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. As SWFs blur the line between public and private investment, however, Western nations worry about the security implications of foreign countries, including Persian Gulf states, acquiring important positions in key industries and companies.

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by Steven Shamrak

At the opening of the Conference of Donors for a Palestinian State in Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy emphasized the urgency of creating a Palestinian state by the end of 2008. International donors eagerly pledged $7.4 billion, pretending that it will boost the Palestinian economy.

The list of fake friends of the fictitious Palestinian nation is long: the United States pledged $555 million for 2008, though about $400 million has not been approved by Congress; Britain, $500 million; Norway, $420 million; Spain, $360 million; France and Sweden, $300 million each; Germany, $290; Belgium, €86 million; the new Australian government pledged $39 million, almost doubling the intended pledge; and the European Union, €440 million ($650 million) in grants to the Palestinians in 2008.

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By Barry Rubin

Ring, ring, goes the telephone. And of course I answer it.

The voice on the other end says that he is “Joseph” of Reuters. I get many calls from journalists and wire services but never has someone I don’t know introduced himself by first name only. Since he has an obvious Arabic accent it is quite clear that he thinks I am either so biased as to care what his family name is or so stupid not to guess why he isn’t giving it.

So the effect is to achieve the exact opposite of what he wants. It puts me on my guard.

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by P. R. Kumaraswamy*

As the U.S.-Iranian dispute escalates, both Washington and Tehran seek friends and allies. New Delhi is caught in the middle. While the U.S.-Indian partnership has grown closer in recent years, New Delhi’s approach toward Iran’s suspected nuclear program causes concern in Washington. Overshadowing the debate is India’s own nuclear program. With the July 2005 U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal yet to win U.S. Senate ratification, is India seeking to strengthen its energy security through Iran? Or is New Delhi pursuing the civilian nuclear deal without being sensitive to Washington’s concerns vis-à-vis Iran?

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By Steven A. Camarota

The debate over immigration has become one of America’s most heated. In a new report published by the Center for Immigration Studies, we provide a detailed picture of the nation’s immigrant population. Our conclusions will probably not surprise most Californians: First, legal and illegal immigration is at record levels. Second, immigrants are generally hardworking, yet they create enormous strains on social services. Why? Put simply, many are uneducated.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Western financial aid to the Palestinians has, I showed last week, the perverse and counterintuitive effect of increasing their rate of homicides, including terrorist ones. This week, I offer two pieces of perhaps even stranger news about the many billions of dollars and record-shattering per-capita donations from the West: First, these have rendered the Palestinians poorer. Second, Palestinian impoverishment is a long-term positive development.

To begin, some basic facts about the Palestinian economy, drawing on a fine survey by Ziv Hellman, “Terminal Situation,” in the Dec. 24 issue of Jerusalem Report:

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Fareed Zakaria this week claimed that foreign tourists “are filled with horror stories about the inconvenience and indignity of traveling to America.” Really? Maybe Zakaria should’ve waited to see Black Friday in New York today before making such sweeping pronouncements. From CNNMoney.com:

… Walking around midtown Manhattan on Black Friday, you heard shoppers speaking in a smorgasbord of languages.

With the U.S. dollar as weak as it is - the greenback hit a new low against the euro on Friday - it appears that many Europeans flocked to the Big Apple to go bargain hunting, to the delight of retailers.

Sarah T., who works at the information booth in the Manhattan Mall, which includes stores such as Aeropostale (Charts), Radio Shack (Charts, Fortune 500) and Charlotte Russe (Charts), said that overall traffic during the morning of Black Friday was about the same as last year but that there were far more many tourists at the mall than a year ago. And she said many of them were leaving with armfuls of bags. …

“We are definitely seeing an influx of European, Canadian and South American consumers,” said Terry Lundgren, the chairman and CEO of Macy’s Inc (Charts, Fortune 500). “These economies view the dollar as being on sale.”

Lundgren said that, in addition to the company’s flagship Macy’s, the Bloomingdale’s stores on 59th Street and in SoHo in Manhattan were both experiencing a boost from tourists, as were Macy’s locations in Chicago and San Francisco. …

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Sell crap disguised as gold, then obfuscate when caught? The current sub-prime mortgage meltdown on Wall Street is sounding a lot like the dot-com bubble — as do all financial bubbles when they finally pop. What happened in the 2007 version of the Party-Like-Its-1999 fiasco? People with bad or marginal credit took out loans to buy homes they couldn’t afford. Banks/lenders relaxed their standards to facilitate these “subprime” loans. Then Wall Street firms like Merrill Lynch and Citigroup bundled up these loans as mortgage-backed securities and sold them as “investments.” The result? “$900 billion in now-suspect securitized debt.” That’s nine hundred billion dollars, a real threat to our whole economy. Just as Wall Street put lipstick on worthless dot-com company pigs, they hocked subprime mortgages as (very risky) high-yield investment vehicles — and were not honest about what they were doing. From Fortune:

… Citigroup delayed for more than a week - from Saturday, October 27th until Sunday, November 4th - in announcing material information about the multi-billion-dollar write-downs it expects to record in this quarter. In the more than a week that passed, there were five trading days - October 29th through November 2nd - in which investors buying and selling Citigroup stock did not know that the write-downs were coming. …

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New Study Looks at Agricultural Labor Force

By CIS

WASHINGTON (November 2007) — A new Backgrounder from the Center for Immigration Studies challenges assertions by farmers and the media that crops are rotting in the fields for lack of workers. Philip Martin, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis, examines workers’ wages, farmers’ earnings, and the prospects of mechanization.

The full report, entitled Farm Labor Shortages: How Real? What Response?, is available at:
http://www.cis.org/articles/2007/back907.html

Among the findings:

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

“The making of profits is impossible,” wrote Eleanor Marx, summarizing one of her father’s key economic concepts as set forth in his rather long-winded Das Kapital. I then wonder how my left-wing friends would explain the fact that, “China will soon overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy behind the US and Japan.” We’re talking 100’s of billions in “communist” profits; so much so that the politburo has had to “curb the pace of growth” with “five interest rate increases in 2007 and limits on spending on factories and property:”

China’s economy grew at an annual pace of 11.5% in the three months to the end of September, official figures show.

The figure was ahead of economists’ predictions but slightly slower than the 11.9% seen in the previous quarter. …

Growth slowed to 11.5%! Still no contradictions? China is the “world’s second largest emitter” of carbon and, “Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.” And these left-wingers still think of China as some kind of nirvana…

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By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)*

DALLAS - The nation’s largest terror-support trial ended in a mistrial Monday after jurors were unable to reach unanimous decisions on most counts. In a bizarre twist, three jurors told U.S. District Judge A. Joe Fish that they disagreed with acquittals announced against at least two defendants, prompting the judge not to accept those outcomes.

A second trial appears likely for the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF). It and five former officials were accused of illegally funneling more than $12 million to Palestinian charity committees controlled by Hamas. Prosecutors relied on secretly recorded conversations and a mountain of bank and other financial records to show that flow of money.

It wasn’t enough.

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