By Barry Rubin

Assuming that the Muslim Brotherhood and smaller Islamist groups do very well in Egypt’s parliamentary election today, what does it tell us about the modern history and political future of that country? The main cause for the political upheaval in Egypt was the long-term failure of the Arab nationalist regime that governed there, and in much of the Arab world, for well over half a century.

Rulers’ inability to keep promises about what they were going to achieve — pan-Arab union, rapid social and economic progress, genocide against Israel, driving out Western influences — has long been clear. Their corruption, the lack of freedom they offered and the economic hardships they brought have also long been clear.

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by Cinnamon Stillwell*

When Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced last month that Walid Phares — a Lebanese-American Christian, adjunct professor of jihadist global strategies at the National Defense University, and former Middle East studies professor at Florida Atlantic University — would be a special adviser on the Middle East and North Africa, it elicited howls of fury from the usual suspects. Nihad Awad, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) — an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation Hamas funding case and the chief Islamist organ in the U.S. — sent a letter to the Romney campaign stating CAIR’s predictable objections, while publications such as the Daily Beast, Salon.com, and Mother Jones followed suit with error-filled hit pieces.

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By Barry Rubin

The New York Times has run an op-ed entitled, ‘The Overblown Islamist Threat.’ Big surprise: There’s no Islamist threat! They’re all moderates! Just like in 1979 Iran or in Turkey more recently. Do you think we might see an oped in The New York Times entitled, ‘The Islamist Threat is Very Real?’ Of course not.

But the real surprise is the author’s identity. It’s former Jordanian foreign minister Marwan Muasher. Huh? Jordan’s policy on Islamism has been based precisely on the idea that letting them take power would be the end of the regime and a disaster for the country.

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by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi*

As the U.S. troop presence in Iraq continues to diminish, it is worth examining what sort of political system has been left behind. Is Iraq really a democracy as many officials in the Bush administration hoped it would be? Sadly, the answer to this question cannot be in the affirmative.

It is of course true that in March 2010, Iraq conducted elections recognized as free and fair by the UN. However, as Osama al-Nujayfi, the Sunni speaker for the Iraqi parliament, astutely observed, democracy is more than just about holding elections. In many of the other essential aspects of a truly democratic society, Iraq’s status is far from satisfactory.

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By Barry Rubin

What does theocracy look like? This is what theocracy looks like! *

Many people find it hard to comprehend what the Obama Administration thinks it’s doing in the Middle East. But it’s really very simple if you know the history of the arguments, read carefully administration speeches and documents, watch their actions, and talk to some of those involved.

Leaving aside a number of points I’ve made in a previous article (which would be good to read in conjunction with this one), I want to focus here on one concept: the idea that the U.S. government has outsmarted the Islamists.

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by Damla Aras*

The referendum held on January 9, 2011, was a milestone for Sudan. With an overwhelming majority of 98.3 percent, southerners decided to secede from the north and to create Africa’s youngest state — the Republic of South Sudan. While this momentous development was expected to end Khartoum’s decades-long struggle with the southern Sudanese rebels, it has set off a number of ticking time bombs and exacerbated existing conflicts. On top of Sudan’s financial problems and the wider impact of the Arab upheavals, President Omar Bashir’s government is now facing a number of pressing issues in the post-referendum era. With the rise of new disputes and the escalation of protracted conflicts, is Bashir’s Sudan on the verge of further instability?

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by Raymond Ibrahim*

Tunisia, where the 2011 Arab uprisings began, remains an ominous model for where these uprisings will end.

The nation’s first round of elections are in, and, as expected, the Islamist party, al-Nahda, won by a landslide, gaining over 40% of the seats in the national constituent assembly. As usual, the mainstream media, interpreting events exclusively through a Western paradigm, portrayed this largely as a positive development.

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by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi*

Since Nouri al-Maliki first became prime minister of Iraq in April 2006, a recurring talking point about his time in office has been that his days are numbered. Indeed, in a paper I wrote for the Middle East Review of International Affairs quarterly journal in the summer of this year, I cast severe doubt on whether the Iraqi premier would remain in power until the expiry of his second term in 2014.

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With Jewish Support, GOP Retakes Seat Held by Democrats for Nearly a Century

By Daniel Perez, with additional reporting by Fern Sidman

In an historic special election, Brooklyn and Queens voters have chosen a Republican to represent New York’s 9th Congressional District, a district that has rested securely in the hands of the Democratic Party since 1923 (and in fact, has only elected two Republicans since 1874). Some see the election of a GOP candidate in what has long been a liberal stronghold as local citizens’ way of rejecting certain policies of President Barack Obama’s administration, in particular the administration’s approach towards Israel.

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By Fern Sidman

Throwing his hat in the ring as the Republican contender for the vacant congressional seat in New York City’s 9th district is Bob Turner, a no-nonsense, back to basics populist candidate. As the 2012 presidential race gains momentum, Mr. Turner has an eye toward creating new and vibrant leadership in Washington, while taking issue with the controversial policies of the Obama administration. On Tuesday, September 13th, a special election will be held pitting Turner against New York State assemblyman David Weprin (D). Recently, The Jewish Voice sat down with Mr. Turner to get his perspective on the issues confronting Americans today.

JV: Mr. Turner, can you tell us, why, at age 70, having never been involved in politics, you are running for elected office?

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By Gary Gerofsky

The far left of center Canadian New Democratic Party (NDP) has been an option that a minority of voters in Canada considered seriously. Federally, they have never been in power and, of the three main parties (Conservative, Liberal and NDP), the NDP always came in third. Provincially they have held power in Ontario, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Nova Scotia and partially in the Yukon.

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by Sterling Jensen*

The Middle East political storm of early 2011 has had an interesting impact on Iraq. Though the government was confronted with almost daily demonstrations, which led to a number of high profile resignations and the use of force to suppress political dissent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki felt sufficiently confident to boast that “Iraq has become the most stable country in the region.”[1] While this may seem a bold claim given the recent past, Maliki is not alone in showing confidence in Iraq’s prospects. The Sadrists, Kurds, and leaders of the primarily Sunni Iraqiya bloc have been equally upbeat about the country’s prospects while many Iraqi insiders believe that their battle-torn country will not only weather the instability but will also serve as a model for democracy.

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by Daniel Pipes*

To keep Kurds out of parliament, the military authors of the 1982 Turkish constitution instituted the unheard-of threshold of 10 percent, meaning that a political party that won less than that proportion of the total vote did not gain any seats. This rule has had a huge impact on Turkish political life, especially in 2002, when it transformed the AK Party’s third of the votes into two thirds of the seats. It has also caused the ruling AKP party, despite its increasing popular vote, to control a steadily smaller number of the 550 seats. Note in particular the bolded numbers:

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By Barry Rubin

Amr Moussa, probably Egypt’s next president, has given a comprehensive picture of his views, a foretaste of the likely policies of someone about to become the Arab world’s most powerful person. One thing he said is particularly important and shocking. Read on.

Moussa, former Egyptian foreign minister (1991-2001) and head of the Arab League until his resignation takes effect on May 15, is a figure from the Egyptian establishment and the old regime. But which aspect of the old regime: that of the centrist Husni Mubarak, the moderate Anwar al-Sadat, or the radical Arab nationalist Gamal Abd al Nasser?

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By Barry Rubin

Remember when we were told that the Muslim Brotherhood was moderate and weak? Why it was so benign that the Brotherhood had even promised only to contest one-third of the seats. And a revolutionary Islamist, antisemitic and genocide-oriented, anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-Christian organization would never lie to us, right?

I mean you can call for all of the Jews in the world to be wiped out; demand a jihad against America; and work day and night for decades to bring to power a totalitarian Islamist state that would chop off limbs, stone people, and murder anyone who didn’t want to be a Muslim any more. But you would never, ever deceive an American reporter!

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