By Barry Rubin

A funny thing happened at the funeral of Imad Mugniyah. Those who had for years been denying any connection with him and his international terrorist activities–Iran, Syria, and Hizballah–suddenly admitted that he was one of their favorite people.

At the same time, other critical points came out. Mugniyah’s critical position as the link between those three allies, in their conduct of terrorism and subversion, stood out clearly. In addition, Mugniyah’s career as an international terrorist, who often operated against Western targets, showed how Hizballah–along with its backers in Tehran and Damascus–were second only to al-Qaida in their global operations of violence.

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By Barry Rubin

Ironic, isn’t it, that radical forces threaten a wide range of violence, sanctions, and other behaviors against democratic states while insisting–along with their Western apologists–that any attempt by their victims to put any kind of pressure on them is useless.

Think about it. Every time someone proposes, say, economic sanctions (on Iran or Syria), an international tribunal investigating its involvement in terrorism (on Syria), military operations or killing terrorist leaders (against Hamas, Hizballah, Iraqi insurgents, al-Qaida, the Kurdish PKK, or the Taliban), diplomatic isolation, or even not giving financial aid (Hamas), a chorus of voices says: it won’t work.

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by Danielle Pletka and Michael Rubin*

On Friday, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei submitted a report on Iran’s nuclear program to the IAEA’s Board of Governors. It concluded that, barring “one major remaining issue relevant to the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme” — including a mysterious “green salt project” — Iran’s explanations of its suspicious nuclear activities “are consistent with [the IAEA’s] findings [or at least] not inconsistent.”

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By Barry Rubin

In the course of Hizballah’s threats against Israel, following the assassination of that group’s international terrorism director, Imad Mugniyah, there was an extremely important point that speaks to the Middle East’s future.

The statement came from General Muhammad Ali Jafari, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the Tehran regime’s main military force (and future guardians of Iran’s nuclear weapons). He predicted, “In the near future, we will witness the destruction of Israel, the aggressor, this cancerous microbe Israel.”

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By Barry Rubin

The Middle East is a region where so many things seem to happen, so little appears to change, and far too much is said about it all.

Partly this is due to the area’s turbulence; partly to obsessive hyper-reporting in an era when everyone claims to be a Middle East expert and the most basic exercise of logic is often absent. Yet, at the same time, silly ideas and policies often also correspond to real needs.

Here’s a list of examples:

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by Michael Rubin*

During his February 5 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell backpedaled from the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and its claim that, “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”

Not only did McConnell testify that the Islamic Republic was working to master the enrichment of uranium - “the most difficult challenge in nuclear production” - but he also acknowledged that, “because of intelligence gaps,” the U.S. government could not be certain that the Iranian government had fully suspended its covert nuclear programs. “We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons,” he testified. “In our judgment, only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons - and such a decision is inherently reversible.”

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by Michelle Mostovy-Eisenberg*

In order to fully understand Middle Eastern politics and society, you must first grasp the underlying basis of Arab culture — specifically, the tribal organization central to life in the region, according to anthropologist and author Philip Carl Salzman.

During a lunchtime event held last week at the Center City law firm of Pepper Hamilton, about 50 people gathered to learn about the roots of contemporary Arab life and the potent affect it can have on conflicts in the region. The lecture was sponsored by the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based think tank.

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by Michael Rubin*

On April 9, 2007, Iranian security forces arrested Mahmoud Salehi, the former president of the Bakery Workers’ Association in Saqez, a town in the Kurdistan province of northwestern Iran. They transferred him to prison in Sanandaj, the provincial capital, where he remains.[1]

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By Phyllis Chesler

They are clever these Iranian Islamists; subtle and sly. Deranged as no men have been before them. For example, just a few days ago, Iran’s Supreme Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, claimed that the West “abuses women” and that Islamic Iran “honors them.” His proof? Islam forces women to “wear the hijab.” Veiled women are entirely invisible to your average man-on-the-street whom, it is assumed, would otherwise sexually harass or rape every woman they see.

He said it. I didn’t.

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by Winfield Myers*

Writing in his well-trafficked blog on Friday, University of Michigan Middle East studies professor Juan Cole illustrates the baleful consequences of the media’s reliance on Cole and other Middle East studies professors of his ilk to explain the Middle East to Americans: it makes possible the wide dissemination of a distorted, conspiracy-laden picture of that highly volatile region.

For in just a few paragraphs, Cole proposed or implied that:

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by P. R. Kumaraswamy*

As the U.S.-Iranian dispute escalates, both Washington and Tehran seek friends and allies. New Delhi is caught in the middle. While the U.S.-Indian partnership has grown closer in recent years, New Delhi’s approach toward Iran’s suspected nuclear program causes concern in Washington. Overshadowing the debate is India’s own nuclear program. With the July 2005 U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal yet to win U.S. Senate ratification, is India seeking to strengthen its energy security through Iran? Or is New Delhi pursuing the civilian nuclear deal without being sensitive to Washington’s concerns vis-à-vis Iran?

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By Phyllis Chesler

It was snowing in Teheran when they hung the twenty seven year-old mother of two children earlier today in the notorious Evin Prison. From the moment she was arrested, she had not been allowed to ever see her children again. Her name was Raheleh Zamani and she had been married off when she was only 15 years old. The political campaign to halt or commute her execution failed.

This tragic story could easily be one of the tales in Marjane Satrapi’s film, Persepolis.

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By Barry Rubin

The two main areas where the alliance of radical forces in the Middle East confront Western interests and pose a danger of major instability are Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and Syria’s efforts to destabilize Iraq. This article considers these two issues. First, it examines what effect Iran’s obtaining nuclear weapons would have on Middle East politics, with an emphasis on scenarios that would occur even if Iran never actually uses them. Second, it asks why it is that the interests of Iran’s ally, Syria, compel it to destabilize Iraq.

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by Daniel Pipes*

With the Dec. 3 publication of a completely unexpected declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” a consensus has emerged that war with Iran “now appears to be off the agenda.” Indeed, Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claimed the report dealt a “fatal blow” to the country’s enemies, while his foreign ministry spokesman called it a “great victory.”

I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out.

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by Michael Rubin*

Congressional Democrats have seized upon the latest National Intelligence Estimate - which says Iran stopped pursuing nuclear weapons in 2003 - with great relish. They suggest it proves that not only did the Bush administration exaggerate the threat of a nuclear Iran, but that the White House, in its drive for hard-line sanctions backed by military force, has been far too skeptical of diplomacy.

In a statement yesterday, Sen.Joseph Biden (D-Del.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chastised President Bush, saying his “actions are doubly dangerous because they undercut the cooperation we need from other countries for dealing with the real problems Iran continues to pose.”

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