A U.S. colonel in Iraq got so fed up with “corrupt, money grubbing contractors” and “commanders only interested in themselves,” felt “dishonored,” so he killed himself, leaving behind his men, a wife, and children. One of the colonel’s men wrote a post mortem letter to him, providing some great insights into the Iraq effort, and suggesting that no war — nothing in life — is perfect. You should read the whole letter in the Alibi, but here are a few excerpts:

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by Michael Rubin*

During his February 5 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell backpedaled from the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and its claim that, “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”

Not only did McConnell testify that the Islamic Republic was working to master the enrichment of uranium - “the most difficult challenge in nuclear production” - but he also acknowledged that, “because of intelligence gaps,” the U.S. government could not be certain that the Iranian government had fully suspended its covert nuclear programs. “We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons,” he testified. “In our judgment, only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons - and such a decision is inherently reversible.”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I never thought I’d hear good news about Iraq — from the UN?

The UN’s top refugee official has hinted that security in Iraq may soon have improved enough for some of the 4m Iraqi refugees to begin returning home. …

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Al Qaeda has proven once again what a heinous group it is by burning prisoners alive, in the name of Allah, on video tape:

Al Qaeda’s latest display of terror has made its way onto the Internet, showing horrifying images of what appear to be prisoners in Iraq being doused with an inflammatory liquid and then burned alive. …

“And now that we have captured these scums who committed this dreadful crime, we will burn them with this fire,” the Al Qaeda leader says in Arabic. “The same fire which they committed their crime with.

“And I swear by God almighty that, I swear by God almighty that we will have no mercy on them,” he continues. “Allahuakbar, Allahuakbar.”

As he speaks, two of the insurgents pour liquid on the blindfolded prisoners. Then they push the bound men into the pit, where they are engulfed in flames.

Click here to see the video on a Turkish news site (WARNING: Very disturbing Images).

Click here to see the full video on Google (WARNING: Very disturbing images).

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by Michelle Mostovy-Eisenberg*

In order to fully understand Middle Eastern politics and society, you must first grasp the underlying basis of Arab culture — specifically, the tribal organization central to life in the region, according to anthropologist and author Philip Carl Salzman.

During a lunchtime event held last week at the Center City law firm of Pepper Hamilton, about 50 people gathered to learn about the roots of contemporary Arab life and the potent affect it can have on conflicts in the region. The lecture was sponsored by the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based think tank.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Well all you critics of the Iraq war, and especially the troop surge; what have you got to say now? From the Times Online:

Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces an “extraordinary crisis”. Last year’s mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the US military “created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight”. The terrorist group’s security structure suffered “total collapse”.

These are the words not of al-Qaeda’s enemies but of one of its own leaders in Anbar province — once the group’s stronghold. They were set down last summer in a 39-page letter seized during a US raid on an al-Qaeda base near Samarra in November. …

More than 80,000 Sunnis have joined the tribal groups of “concerned local citizens” [CLCs] that have helped to eject al-Qaeda from swaths of western and northern Iraq, including much of Baghdad. …

Yeah, yeah, I know it is not over ’til the fat lady sings, but please spare me your “blood-for-oil” crap…

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What Will Be In It and Should It Be a Treaty?

by Michael Rubin*

Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee
Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight; and
Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia

Chairman Delahunt, Chairman Ackerman, Honorable Members. Thank you for this opportunity to testify.

This hearing seeks to determine whether any proposed U.S. security commitment to Iraq should constitute a treaty. It is an important question, but there is no cut-and-dry answer: Too much depends upon the content of the agreement.

On November 26, 2007, President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki released a “Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America.” Among the principles they outlined were:

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by Michael Rubin*

On a strictly emotional level, U.S. support for Iraqi Kurdistan makes sense.¹ In the wake of World War I, the Kurds missed their opportunity for statehood when other peoples gained their independence. Today, they remain the largest ethnic group without a country. They have suffered greatly at the hands of others. But while Iraqi Kurdistan has come far, the unreliability of its leadership makes any long-term U.S.-Kurdish alliance unwise. Rather than become a beacon for democracy, the current Iraqi Kurdish leadership appears intent on replicating more autocratic models. Rather than become a regional Nelson Mandela, Iraqi Kurdish president Masud Barzani now charts a course to become a new Yasser Arafat. Despite lofty rhetoric about its suitability as an ally, Iraqi Kurdistan’s actions suggest that it is far from trustworthy.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

John Edwards has been trying to con Americans into believing he is for the common man, even though he is by no means a common man. Well, today his “populist” message has turned even more sociopathic than it has ever been before. Yeah, his rush to completely abandon Iraq may attract the votes of a few extremists, but not those of mainstream Americans. From the NYT:

John Edwards says that if elected president he would withdraw the American troops who are training the Iraqi army and police as part of a broader plan to remove virtually all American forces within 10 months. …

That’ll show our enemies who’s (not) in charge! Retreat when we’re starting to win?

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

The numbers — facts on the ground — continue to disprove the naysayers who would have us flush Iraq down the toilet, just to satisfy a political score/sore:

… Earlier on Tuesday, a number of Iraqi ministries released data suggesting that the number of civilian[s] killed in Iraq was continuing to fall.

The December death toll was 480, down from almost 900 two months previously and about 2,000 in December 2006. …

American military deaths also fell in December, dropping to 21 compared to more than 100 in December 2006.

Other likely factors behind the fall in deaths are the emergence of Sunni tribal groups opposed to al-Qaeda and the truce called by Shia militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr. …

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By Aram Rafaat

The Kurds’ desire to secure and consolidate the freedoms they enjoyed in the decade prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq has reshaped U.S.-Kurdish relations in many ways. In order to keep Iraq united with a strong central government, U.S. policy tries to ensure that the Kurds do not seek independence. At the same time, though, The United States has tried to work with the Kurdish Regional Government. The Kurds have equally tried to support the U.S. presence in Iraq as they too benefit from the cooperative relationship.

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By Barry Rubin

The two main areas where the alliance of radical forces in the Middle East confront Western interests and pose a danger of major instability are Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and Syria’s efforts to destabilize Iraq. This article considers these two issues. First, it examines what effect Iran’s obtaining nuclear weapons would have on Middle East politics, with an emphasis on scenarios that would occur even if Iran never actually uses them. Second, it asks why it is that the interests of Iran’s ally, Syria, compel it to destabilize Iraq.

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by Michael Rubin*

It’s been nearly two months since the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) sparked an international crisis with a major attack inside Turkey, and more than six weeks since President Bush promised Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Washington would aid Turkey’s fight against terrorism. Heady talk of intelligence sharing and cooperation followed and, indeed, may have been a factor in this weekend’s Turkish air strikes on PKK targets in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Yet at the same time the Bush administration — more precisely its increasingly assertive State Department — has embraced an ill-advised diplomatic strategy toward the PKK that will likely backfire on our long-standing NATO ally, and could serve to undermine what is left of President Bush’s “global war on terrorism.”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I’m almost willing to believe pigs can fly:

… Fresh from a four-day visit to Iraq and Kuwait, John Murtha said: “I think the ’surge’ is working.” …

Why would Murtha think the surge is working? From the AP:

The number of Iraqis killed last month fell to 718, an Associated Press tally showed, the lowest monthly death toll since just before the 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine provoked a vicious cycle of retaliatory sectarian violence. …

It was the third consecutive monthly decline in the death toll of Iraqi civilians and security forces since August, when a massive suicide bombing targeting minority Yazidis in northern Iraq helped push the figure to at least 1,956. …

The number of U.S. troop deaths also declined for the sixth consecutive month, with at least 37 recorded in November, according to an AP tally based on military figures. That was the lowest number since March 2006, when 31 American service members died. …

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By Jonathan Spyer

The possible emergence of a nuclear-armed, Islamist Iran committed to the destruction of the Jewish state is the key security issue currently occupying the attention of Israel’s political and security elite. It is one of the few issues upon which there is near (but not total) consensus. Israel has watched the growing power of radical elements within the Iranian ruling elite in the last half-decade with concern. These elements, of which President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is the most prominent representative, openly reject Israel’s right to exist. Ahmedinejad’s comments advocating Israel’s destruction and denying the Holocaust are part of a larger project to recover the original fervour of the 1979 Islamic revolution. The expansion of Iran’s regional role is also part of this, and Israeli strategists note that the influence of Iran in all areas of key strategic concern to Israel is being felt, in a negative way. Iran’s alliance with Syria underwrites Damascus’s increasingly bellicose stance. Iran’s creation and sponsorship of Hizbullah has enabled it to come to constitute the powerful militia opponent seen in last year’s war. Iranian assistance to Hamas and Islamic jihad may be in the process of turning these organisations into analogous forces.

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