By Andrew L. Jaffee

“Let me be clear: There is no military solution in Iraq and there never was,” said presidential candidate Barack Obama in September 2007. Eight hours ago, he “announced the withdrawal of most of the 142,000 US troops in Iraq by August 2010… he said some 35,000 to 50,000 soldiers would stay on until the end of 2011 to train and support Iraqi security forces. All troops will be pulled out by 2012.” So now an “immediate withdrawal” means two-to-three years? I’m not complaining by any means because this timetable pretty much ensures mission success. As Pres. George H. W. Bush once said, “Stay the course.”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Iraqis voted on Saturday for local representatives, on an almost violence-free election day aimed at creating provincial councils that more closely represent Iraq’s ethnic, sectarian and tribal balance. By nightfall, there were no confirmed deaths, and children played soccer on closed-off streets in a generally joyous atmosphere. …

So admits the New York Times (NYT) in a story entitled, “Under Tight Security, Iraqis Vote on Almost Violence-Free Election Day,” published on January 31, 2009. In another story, the NYT admitted that the elections occurred in “Iraq’s most peaceful period since the American invasion in 2003.” This is all a far cry from the constant litany of doomsday prognostications we’ve been listening to since the Coalition effort to bring democracy to Iraq began in 2003.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Why, just two weeks into a 209-week term, assess a new American president’s record on so esoteric a subject as the Middle East and Islam? In Barack Obama’s case, because of:

(1) A contradictory record: His background brims over with wild-eyed anti-Zionist radicals such as Ali Abunimah, Rashid Khalidi, and Edward Said, with Islamists, the Nation of Islam, and the Saddam Hussein regime; but since being elected he has made predominantly center-left appointments and his statements resemble those of his Oval Office predecessors.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Two events earlier this month summed up differing views of George W. Bush’s Middle East record.

In one, Bush himself offered a valedictory speech, declaring that “the Middle East in 2008 is a freer, more hopeful, and more promising place than it was in 2001.” In the other, an Iraqi journalist, Muntadar al-Zaidi, expressed disrespect and rejection by hurling shoes at Bush as the U.S. president spoke in Baghdad, yelling at him, “This is a farewell kiss! Dog! Dog!”

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by Jeffrey Azarva*

On December 31, 2008, the United Nations mandate for Multi-National Force-Iraq, which has authorized the presence of foreign troops in Iraq since 2004, will expire. While troop levels and future U.S.-Iraq cooperation dominate debate, the future of coalition detention operations in Iraq is as important. The reform of detainee operations in Iraq has been one of the most important, and least reported, contributors to the past year’s reduction in violence. Detention facilities, once viewed by military commanders as a strategic backwater,[1] today are viewed as an integral part of the coalition’s successful counterinsurgency strategy. The coalition now uses detention facilities to learn why Iraqis join the insurgency so that the insurgents can be rehabilitated and turned into allies instead of enemies.

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By Kenneth M. Pollack*

This article discusses the current situation in Iraq and U.S. policy on that country. It discusses current plans for a U.S. withdrawal and Iraqi politics, putting them also in the context of the likely policy of the Obama administration and the coming challenges in Iraq.

All across America, people increasingly seem to believe that the war in Iraq is won. Republicans proclaim it triumphantly. Democrats acknowledge it grudgingly and then try to change the subject to Afghanistan.

There is only one problem. The war in Iraq is not won. Despite the remarkable progress since 2006, the situation in Iraq remains extremely tentative and could easily fall apart again.

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By Barry Rubin

Dear President Obama:

They say that you prefer the name Barry and so it pleases me no end that another Barry is finally president of the United States. In addition, I once worked as a community organizer so we have two things in common.

On that basis, then, I hope you don’t mind my making some suggestions about how you might think about the Middle East. I’m not looking for a job in Washington. In fact, as I look back on my life, I note that if I’d been successful in some obsession for a U.S. a government post I would have been a proud participant in such endeavors as the catastrophic mishandling of Iran’s revolution, the failed U.S. dispatch of troops to Lebanon, the botched trade of arms for hostages with Iran, the crashed peace process, and the Iraq war.

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By Evan Kohlmann*

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from a prominent Sunni insurgent group in Iraq known as the Mujahideen Army. The statement, issued in response to a controversial recent audio address from Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, angrily condemned Abu Hamza for spreading “hideous slander”, “fabrications”, and “falsifications” about the Mujahideen Army abandoning the cause of jihad. The Mujahideen Army insisted that they have neither joined in the Awakening movements, nor in “the methodology of fanaticism, of which [Al-Qaida is] the central pillar.” The group added, “in order to prevent our enemies from gloating over us… [and] drag[ging] our conflicts [with Al-Qaida] into the spotlight… that is the only reason why we kept silent about their actions and the crimes that their followers have committed… We didn’t kill a single one of them, although we could have if we had wanted to.” Countering with their own allegations of insurgent fratricide by Al-Qaida, the Mujahideen Army openly mocked the intelligence of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, who “seems to believe that by randomly throwing out accusations against others, that will somehow make his fabrications come true and his imaginary illusions become real… to the extent that [he is] no longer acting out of concern for jihad, the Islamic nation, and our religion.”

A translation of the statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

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By Andrew Cochran*

In my opinion, the single most effective counter-measure that the U.S. government has taken against terrorist financing in the past three to four years was to integrate counter-terrorist financing theory and techniques into the worldwide counterinsurgency efforts of the Pentagon, especially in Iraq. This website was the first to report the establishment of the joint Defense Department - Treasury Department “threat finance cells” in Iraq, which successfully interrupted terrorists’ funding flows. The concept is inexpensive and simple in concept: Treasury Department personnel trained in banking operations and in recognizing money laundering and terrorist financing techniques work side by side with military personnel to identify the sources and methods of a given terrorist cell in a selected area. I expect Gen. Petraeus to expand the concept into Afghanistan after he takes over CENTCOM on Friday.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Barack Obama appears to have personally benefited from funds originating in Saddam Hussein’s regime. It’s a complicated connection, but one that deserves the consideration of Americans voters.

Two similar figures, Nadhmi Auchi and Antoin S. “Tony” Rezko, served as the intermediaries. Both are Middle Eastern males of Catholic Christian heritage who left Baathist dictatorships for Western cities (Auchi from Iraq to London, Rezko from Syria to Chicago). Both became successful businessmen who hobnobbed with politicians and promoted Arab interests. Both have been convicted of taking kickbacks and both stand accused of other shady dealings.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Now this is what I like to see. Instead of pussy-footing around, and worrying about international diplomatic repercussions, U.S. forces have sent a clear message to Syria’s despotic and corrupt regime: “Stop making trouble for Iraq’s nascent democracy!” From the Associated Press entitled, “US special forces launch rare attack inside Syria:”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Things continue to improve in Iraq. U.S. troops killed al-Qaeda’s Number Two, a guy who was trying to reorganize the group in the northern part of the country:

American soldiers killed the alleged No. 2 leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, a Moroccan who trained in Afghanistan, recruited foreign fighters and ran operations in northern Iraq where Sunni insurgents remain a potent threat, the U.S. military said Wednesday.

The man, who the military said was known as Abu Qaswarah, died Oct. 5 during a raid on a building in the northern city of Mosul that served as a major “command and control location” for the region. Four other insurgents were killed in the operation, the U.S. said. …

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By Walid Phares*

Prague, September 16, 2008

As part of my current European lectures and briefings tour in Europe which began this week at the European Parliament in Brussels I presented a lecture to the Center for International Security in Prague on the war of ideas and global strategies of the Jihadist movements and regimes. I will be reporting on this tour in the near future. Following is an interview with the editor of the news center at (the US-funded) Radio Free Europe based in Prague based on a discussion centered on the ideological confrontation with the Jihadi forces worldwide. The exchanged was edited and sent to news desks in several languages to be broadcast. Below, find the interview and the link to the site.

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~by E.D. Kain, NeoConstant

According to The Long War Journal’s Jane Novak, the US Embassy in Yemen was attacked today by a militant group carrying machine guns, RPG’s, and setting off a series of explosions. The terrorist force was repelled after killing 16 people, and attempting to breach the US compound. After a fierce gun battle, the militants were repelled. No US citizens were killed, though many Yemeni security officers were killed or wounded in the fight.

A group calling itself Yemeni Islamic Jihad took credit for today’s attack. The group last month claimed responsbility for a July suicide car bombing at a police station in Hadramout killed one policeman and injured 18. The police station had been previously bombed with no injuries. Yemeni Islamic Jihad also threatened a future attack in the capital.

This is not the first attack or attempted attack on a US embassy or consulate this year. In July, the US consulate in Ankara, Turkey was attacked leaving several dead. Luckily both attacks proved to be failures, unlike some of the major suicide bombings we’ve seen in India and Afghanistan recently.

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by Daniel Pipes*

When it comes to a state fighting a non-state enemy, there is a widespread impression the state is doomed to fail.

In 1968, Robert F. Kennedy concluded that victory in Vietnam was “probably beyond our grasp,” and called for a peaceful settlement. In 1983, the analyst Shahram Chubin wrote that the Soviets in Afghanistan were embroiled in an “unwinnable war.” In 1992, U.S. officials shied away from involvement in Bosnia, fearing entanglement in a centuries-old conflict. In 2002, retired U.S. general Wesley Clark portrayed the American effort in Afghanistan as unwinnable. In 2004, President George W. Bush said of the war on terror, “I don’t think you can win it.” In 2007, the Winograd Commission deemed Israel’s war against Hizbullah unwinnable.

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