By Jonathan Spyer

Washington’s decision to return its ambassador to Syria is the latest stage in the present administration’s policy of engagement with Damascus. It relates most importantly to the US desire to secure Syrian cooperation in the build-up to the departure of American combat troops from urban areas in Iraq.

The decision is related to the broader American ambition of drawing Damascus away from Iran. Hopes for a revival of talks between Israel and Syria, and the desire to enlist Syria in the ongoing effort to bring about a rapprochement between the Palestinian Fatah movement and the Damascus-domiciled Hamas may also have played a role.

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by Michael Rubin*

Today is a milestone in Iraq. Under the terms of the Strategic Framework Agreement, U.S. troops will withdraw from Iraqi cities. In retrospect, however, June 30 will likely mark another milestone: the end of the surge and the relative peace it brought to Iraq. In the past week, bombings in Baghdad, Mosul and near Kirkuk have killed almost 200 people. The worst is yet to come.

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By Jonathan Spyer

In his letter to Congress announcing the renewal of US sanctions on Syria, President Barack Obama was specific regarding the reasons for his decision.
Syria, the President said, was “supporting terrorism, pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, and undermining US and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq.”

These three accusations are related to verifiable activity currently being undertaken by the Damascus regime. Syria’s activity in turn reflects the firmness of the regime’s strategic choice to align itself with the regional alliance led by Iran.

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by Michael Rubin*

US President Barack Obama’s plan to withdraw troops from Iraq is predicated on an assumption that Iraq’s stability is durable. On 29 January 2009, General Ray Odierno, commander of the Multi-National Force-Iraq, said: “We are getting close to enduring stability, which enables us really to reduce [US military forces].” Advocates of military withdrawal by the United States are optimistic: the 31 January 2009 provincial elections proceeded without much incident.

According to US government figures, violence is down to 2003 levels. Progress, however, has less to do with the governance system, and more to do with key personalities: President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, both of whom met Obama in Baghdad on 7 April, as well as Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani each conciliate crisis and reconcile disparate interests. Without them, stability and security in Iraq may not be sustainable.

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by Scott Carpenter and Michael Rubin*

Shortly after taking office, President Obama congratulated Iraqis on successful provincial elections. “Millions of Iraqi citizens from every ethnic and religious group went peacefully to the polls across the country to choose new provincial councils,” he declared on Jan. 31. But this was not quite the case. In the three provinces that comprise Iraqi Kurdistan, the regional parliament postponed the vote until May 19. Only recently have plans been made to hold the elections.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

“Let me be clear: There is no military solution in Iraq and there never was,” said presidential candidate Barack Obama in September 2007. Eight hours ago, he “announced the withdrawal of most of the 142,000 US troops in Iraq by August 2010… he said some 35,000 to 50,000 soldiers would stay on until the end of 2011 to train and support Iraqi security forces. All troops will be pulled out by 2012.” So now an “immediate withdrawal” means two-to-three years? I’m not complaining by any means because this timetable pretty much ensures mission success. As Pres. George H. W. Bush once said, “Stay the course.”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Iraqis voted on Saturday for local representatives, on an almost violence-free election day aimed at creating provincial councils that more closely represent Iraq’s ethnic, sectarian and tribal balance. By nightfall, there were no confirmed deaths, and children played soccer on closed-off streets in a generally joyous atmosphere. …

So admits the New York Times (NYT) in a story entitled, “Under Tight Security, Iraqis Vote on Almost Violence-Free Election Day,” published on January 31, 2009. In another story, the NYT admitted that the elections occurred in “Iraq’s most peaceful period since the American invasion in 2003.” This is all a far cry from the constant litany of doomsday prognostications we’ve been listening to since the Coalition effort to bring democracy to Iraq began in 2003.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Why, just two weeks into a 209-week term, assess a new American president’s record on so esoteric a subject as the Middle East and Islam? In Barack Obama’s case, because of:

(1) A contradictory record: His background brims over with wild-eyed anti-Zionist radicals such as Ali Abunimah, Rashid Khalidi, and Edward Said, with Islamists, the Nation of Islam, and the Saddam Hussein regime; but since being elected he has made predominantly center-left appointments and his statements resemble those of his Oval Office predecessors.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Two events earlier this month summed up differing views of George W. Bush’s Middle East record.

In one, Bush himself offered a valedictory speech, declaring that “the Middle East in 2008 is a freer, more hopeful, and more promising place than it was in 2001.” In the other, an Iraqi journalist, Muntadar al-Zaidi, expressed disrespect and rejection by hurling shoes at Bush as the U.S. president spoke in Baghdad, yelling at him, “This is a farewell kiss! Dog! Dog!”

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by Jeffrey Azarva*

On December 31, 2008, the United Nations mandate for Multi-National Force-Iraq, which has authorized the presence of foreign troops in Iraq since 2004, will expire. While troop levels and future U.S.-Iraq cooperation dominate debate, the future of coalition detention operations in Iraq is as important. The reform of detainee operations in Iraq has been one of the most important, and least reported, contributors to the past year’s reduction in violence. Detention facilities, once viewed by military commanders as a strategic backwater,[1] today are viewed as an integral part of the coalition’s successful counterinsurgency strategy. The coalition now uses detention facilities to learn why Iraqis join the insurgency so that the insurgents can be rehabilitated and turned into allies instead of enemies.

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By Kenneth M. Pollack*

This article discusses the current situation in Iraq and U.S. policy on that country. It discusses current plans for a U.S. withdrawal and Iraqi politics, putting them also in the context of the likely policy of the Obama administration and the coming challenges in Iraq.

All across America, people increasingly seem to believe that the war in Iraq is won. Republicans proclaim it triumphantly. Democrats acknowledge it grudgingly and then try to change the subject to Afghanistan.

There is only one problem. The war in Iraq is not won. Despite the remarkable progress since 2006, the situation in Iraq remains extremely tentative and could easily fall apart again.

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By Barry Rubin

Dear President Obama:

They say that you prefer the name Barry and so it pleases me no end that another Barry is finally president of the United States. In addition, I once worked as a community organizer so we have two things in common.

On that basis, then, I hope you don’t mind my making some suggestions about how you might think about the Middle East. I’m not looking for a job in Washington. In fact, as I look back on my life, I note that if I’d been successful in some obsession for a U.S. a government post I would have been a proud participant in such endeavors as the catastrophic mishandling of Iran’s revolution, the failed U.S. dispatch of troops to Lebanon, the botched trade of arms for hostages with Iran, the crashed peace process, and the Iraq war.

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By Evan Kohlmann*

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from a prominent Sunni insurgent group in Iraq known as the Mujahideen Army. The statement, issued in response to a controversial recent audio address from Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, angrily condemned Abu Hamza for spreading “hideous slander”, “fabrications”, and “falsifications” about the Mujahideen Army abandoning the cause of jihad. The Mujahideen Army insisted that they have neither joined in the Awakening movements, nor in “the methodology of fanaticism, of which [Al-Qaida is] the central pillar.” The group added, “in order to prevent our enemies from gloating over us… [and] drag[ging] our conflicts [with Al-Qaida] into the spotlight… that is the only reason why we kept silent about their actions and the crimes that their followers have committed… We didn’t kill a single one of them, although we could have if we had wanted to.” Countering with their own allegations of insurgent fratricide by Al-Qaida, the Mujahideen Army openly mocked the intelligence of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, who “seems to believe that by randomly throwing out accusations against others, that will somehow make his fabrications come true and his imaginary illusions become real… to the extent that [he is] no longer acting out of concern for jihad, the Islamic nation, and our religion.”

A translation of the statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

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By Andrew Cochran*

In my opinion, the single most effective counter-measure that the U.S. government has taken against terrorist financing in the past three to four years was to integrate counter-terrorist financing theory and techniques into the worldwide counterinsurgency efforts of the Pentagon, especially in Iraq. This website was the first to report the establishment of the joint Defense Department - Treasury Department “threat finance cells” in Iraq, which successfully interrupted terrorists’ funding flows. The concept is inexpensive and simple in concept: Treasury Department personnel trained in banking operations and in recognizing money laundering and terrorist financing techniques work side by side with military personnel to identify the sources and methods of a given terrorist cell in a selected area. I expect Gen. Petraeus to expand the concept into Afghanistan after he takes over CENTCOM on Friday.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Barack Obama appears to have personally benefited from funds originating in Saddam Hussein’s regime. It’s a complicated connection, but one that deserves the consideration of Americans voters.

Two similar figures, Nadhmi Auchi and Antoin S. “Tony” Rezko, served as the intermediaries. Both are Middle Eastern males of Catholic Christian heritage who left Baathist dictatorships for Western cities (Auchi from Iraq to London, Rezko from Syria to Chicago). Both became successful businessmen who hobnobbed with politicians and promoted Arab interests. Both have been convicted of taking kickbacks and both stand accused of other shady dealings.

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