By Barry Rubin

A strange malady has apparently descended on part of Israel’s, much of America’s, and most of Europe’s elite. Let’s call it Syriantoxication, the belief that there is a real chance to make peace with Syria and–in its extreme version–that Lebanon should be sacrificed for that goal.

To call this wishful thinking is understatement. Why is this happening?

Few Israelis believe that negotiations with Palestinians will lead anywhere. Those on the right think it’s dangerous, those in the center believe it can be done without harm and for limited benefit, those on the left doubt it will work but wishful thinking compels them to hope even without conviction.

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by Robert G. Rabil*

The Iranian and Syrian relationship with Hezbollah developed from a combination of ideological, domestic, and regional factors. Both Tehran and Damascus found Hezbollah to be a useful proxy to further regional objectives. Today, however, Hezbollah’s position has changed. Tehran’s growing strength is matched by Damascus’s regional weakness. As overt Syrian suzerainty over Lebanon fades and Hezbollah increases its regional role without regard to the Lebanese government, the nature of Hezbollah’s relations to Syria has changed. The group has outgrown its subservient relationship to Damascus. Hezbollah is no longer the junior partner in the axis.

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Panel Discussion, MERIA

The U.S. Department of State’s International Information Programs (IIP) in Washington D.C., the Public Affairs Office at the U.S. Embassy in Israel, and the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center jointly held an international videoconference seminar focusing on both domestic and foreign affairs in Lebanon. Israeli and U.S. experts examined the balance of and struggle for power in the country, external factors, and future prospects.

Brief biographies of the participants can be found at the end of the article.* This seminar is part of the GLORIA Center’s Experts Forum series.

Dr. Paul A. Jureidini: Hizballah will have to decide whether it will remain within the country’s framework; or whether it wants to pull another "Hamas," seize the territories it controls, and run them as a quasi-independent state. This could happen as a fact which is formally ignored or as part of a situation in which Lebanon has two governments.

There is no question that Hizballah represents the Shi’a on two counts only: It is the protector of all the gains that the Shi’a have made from 1975 until now, and the Shi’a are determined to maintain these gains. Two, there is no question that when it comes to Hizballah vs. Israel, the Shi’a community will back Hizballah. But Hizballah, in my opinion, has lost a lot of prestige in Lebanon–and in the Arab world–since the summer of 2006, due to its war with Israel as well as later events in which there have been clashes between communities.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I hope the Lebanese are stepping up to the plate. Having vast swaths of their country under the control of thugs — Palestinian/al-Qaeda terrorists, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran — must get old, and be really frustrating. But today, Lebanese people backed up their military in helping to clean things up:

Lebanon’s army crushed the last remnants of a militant group in a ferocious gunbattle Sunday that killed 39 of the fighters, ending a bloody three-month siege at a Palestinian refugee camp that was the country’s worst internal violence in years.

Nearby villages celebrated with fireworks, drumming and dancing after the government declared victory. …

Residents of nearby villages, armed with guns and sticks, fanned out to protect their houses and prevent the fighters from seeking refuge and melting into the local population, state TV reported. Smoke billowed from fields where the army set fires to deny militants a hiding place.

Mohammed Khodor Najib, 65, boasted about how he captured a militant in Mohammara, a farming community near the camp.

“I found one of them hiding in my garden,” he said. Using a hunting rifle, he opened fire. “I hit him and handed him over to the army.” …

One must wonder where Hezbollah stands regarding the following statement, as their own elimination would be the logical conclusion of the current course of events:

The joy cut through the deep political divisions in the country, with supporters of both the government and opposition praising the army.

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By Barry Rubin

Lebanon may be beginning one of the most turbulent periods in its all-too-tumultuous history. As the world looks on with apparent indifference, Islamist and Iran-led forces may be on the verge of a new victory over Arab nationalists and just about everyone else.

With what can only be called astounding courage, most Lebanese Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim politicians have stood up to the Shia Muslim group Hizballah as well as its Iranian and Syrian backers. Hizballah is well-financed from Tehran and Damascus; the government–and even less its constituent elements–receive relatively little international help.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

So “Muslims are an oppressed minority in this country?” One wouldn’t have made this conclusion if attending my hometown’s annual Maronite Christian Lebanese festival, held last weekend here in downtown Middle America. Amongst the throngs of Polish-, German-, Lithuanian-, Franco-, Scottish-, Irish-, Anglo-, African-, Jewish-, Latino-, etc.-Americans were Muslims, too. Several women were sporting their hijab (head scarves). If so oppressed, would Muslims have been there having a good time with the rest of us? Conversely, if these women were radical Islamists, would they have been at a Christian-sponsored festival involving belly-dancing, beer-kegs, and plenty of male/female fraternization? Everybody needs to chill out a little bit.

Festival organizers had a display on Lebanese history, including Phoenician and Maronite factoids. There was no shilling for the Palestinians; no railing against Israel; no anti-Muslim sentiments. It all was in good taste, despite how badly Lebanese Christians have been treated in their homeland by other Arabs and Muslims.

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By Barry Rubin

The Middle East is in a new era, very different from the politics and strategic situation we have been used to for so long.

For 55 years the region has lived under Arab nationalist dominance. Every Arab regime, except perhaps Sudan, is Arab nationalist, governed by that basic system and world view.

Of course, these regimes have governed badly, not keeping pledges to unite the Arab world, minimize Western influence, destroy Israel, or bring rapid social and economic progress. Still, they know how to stay in power.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Quiz time: Which Middle Eastern country disappeared from the map not long ago for more than six months?

Answer: Kuwait, which disappeared from August 1990 to February 1991, becoming Iraq’s 19^th province. This brutal conquest by Saddam Hussein culminated intermittent Iraqi claims going back to the 1930s. Restoring Kuwait’s sovereignty required a huge American-led expeditionary force of more than half a million soldiers.

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By Barry Rubin

The world was shocked by Hamas’s violent takeover of the Gaza Strip, and the damage done to any hope for peace or regional stability is generally recognized. But a second, even more serious, extremist takeover is in the works for which Western inaction would bear far more responsibility.

This time the victim would be Lebanon and the perpetrator is Hizballah, backed by Syria and Iran.

Today, Lebanon is ruled by a Christian-Sunni Muslim-Druze coalition determined to maintain a moderate and independent Lebanon. This partnership arose after Syria assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in February 2005, coming out of a mass movement which successfully demanded the Syrian withdrawal after two decades in which Lebanon was looted as a satellite state by its next-door neighbor.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

…Many in Lebanon believed the army would be able to quickly crush Fatah Islam inside Nahr el-Bared, but after several days of fierce battles using artillery and tanks, the troops continued to face strong resistance. …

- AP, 6/4/2007

And just what were these “many in Lebanon” smoking? Syrian-sponsored Palestinian terrorist groups have been festering unchecked in Lebanon for years. In fact, “There is a longstanding convention that the army does not enter Lebanon’s 12 Palestinian refugee camps, leaving security inside to militant groups.” Today, fighting between the Lebanese army and Palestinian terrorists spread to a second refugee camp, Ein el-Hilweh. Fighting at the Nahr al-Bared camp in northern Lebanon has been raging for several weeks.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Sometimes a person’s (or government’s) guilt can be fathomed by how vehemently that entity objects to accusations, and/or denies its guilt. Case in point: Syrian objections to the UN Security Council’s decision to establish an international tribunal to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Laughingly, Syria is claiming to be looking out of the Lebanese people — after ruthlessly occupying the nation for 29 years. From the BBC:

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By Canadian Coalition for Democracies

Ottawa, Canada - As the Lebanese government attempts to bring Palestinian terrorist and their foreign allies based in UN refugee camps under control, serious questions must be asked about the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) and its role in supporting and sustaining these armed gangs and their expensive infrastructures. For its part, the Canadian Government must investigate the way its own money and support for UNRWA have been misused to fuel extremism in the region.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

The current infighting in Lebanon between the Palestinian (Arab) Fatah al-Islam terrorists and Lebanese (Arab) security forces is a stark reminder of the often-ignored plight of Palestinians living in the Arab World. In Lebanon, Palestinians are marginalized, living in ghettos. One of the biggest and most under-reported episodes of ethnic cleansing was the Kuwaiti expulsion of 400,000 Palestinians after the first Gulf War. Palestinians in Kuwait largely supported Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion of their host nation. As a result:

…Kuwait severed ties with PLO as a result of the Gulf War fall-out and cut its financial backing.

After Saddam Hussein was driven out, the emirate expelled some 400,000 Palestinians, although a few thousand stayed or have since returned. …

Kuwait is not the only Arab country to expel Palestinians, while Lebanon hasn’t exactly welcomed Palestinians with open arms:

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

When Israel was defending herself from a rain of rockets fired by Lebanese-based Hezbollah terrorists, the Jewish state was accused of using “disproportionate” force. Hmmm… Let’s talk disproportionate and hypocrisy. When Lebanese security forces tried to arrest Palestinian bank robbers hiding in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp, Fatah al-Islam terrorists, “an Al-Qaeda inspired group,” “attacked army posts at the entrances to the camp. A large force of Lebanese troops hit back, bombarding the camp and storming a building on the outskirts of Tripoli.” Proportionate? On Tuesday, “A UN aid convoy which entered the Nahr al-Bared camp in northern Lebanon has been forced to leave after shells exploded near its vehicles. … There are reports of injuries…” Disproportionate? Today, thousands of refugees are fleeing the fighting in and around the Nahr al-Bared camp. “At least 50 soldiers and militants have died. The civilian toll is unknown.” Proportionate?

I can’t find a news story about Lebanon’s chaos on the BBC without the following disclaimer:

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By Evan Kohlmann*

The explosion of violence this week in the northern, predominantly Sunni Lebanese city of Tripoli has refocused attention on the elusive Fatah al-Islam extremist movement based there, and has led to rampant speculation over the group’s actual motives. While some observers have pointed to the Salafi jihadist ideology of Fatah al-Islam and its vocal support for Al-Qaida, others have accused the group as serving as a proxy for Syrian intelligence in a bid to derail an international investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

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