by Svante E. Cornell*

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) was reelected to a third term in June 2011. This remarkable achievement was mainly the result of the opposition’s weakness and the rapid economic growth that has made Turkey the world’s sixteenth largest economy. But Ankara’s growing international profile also played a role in the continued public support for the conservative, Islamist party. Indeed, in a highly unusual fashion, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began his victory speech by saluting “friendly and brotherly nations from Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Cairo, Sarajevo, Baku, and Nicosia.”[1] “The Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans have won as much as Turkey,” he claimed, pledging to take on an even greater role in regional and international affairs. By 2023, the republic’s centennial, the AKP has promised that Turkey will be among the world’s ten leading powers.

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By Fern Sidman

On Tuesday evening, November 22nd, close to 100 people gathered at the Kingsway Jewish Center in Brooklyn to hear a powerful presentation of the unique work done by Israel-based Honenu organization. Hosted by the Zionism Museum and Education Center headed by director Stephen L. Epstein, the attendees sat in rapt attention as Shalom Pollack, the assistant director of development for Honenu, delivered both an enlightening and exceptionally informative address on the escalating assault on the legal rights of soldiers and citizens in Israel.

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By Fern Sidman

Just hours before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna released their much awaited report confirming Iran’s “development of a nuclear explosive device”, this very topic was vigorously addressed at a forum at the 92nd Street Y on Manhattan’s upper east side. Excerpts from the powerful 2011 documentary, “Iranium” (which documents the genesis of Iran’s nuclear threat, beginning with the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the ideology espoused by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini until today) was screened before the 200 audience members. Simulcast to a variety of venues around the country, the distinguished panel members had the opportunity of answering questions from audience members who were not present at the location.

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By Jonathan Spyer

Early this week, the US-based Noble Energy Company began exploratory drilling for offshore gas deposits off the coast of Cyprus. They did so with the agreement of the Nicosia authorities, in an area indisputably located within Cypriot territorial waters. Despite this, there was real concern that the drilling could face interference from Turkish navy ships on maneuvers in the area.

The explorations proceeded undisturbed. The Turkish ships observed procedures from a discreet distance. But Cyprus’s defiance of recent Turkish warnings against beginning the search for natural gas in this area is unlikely to be the last word on the matter.

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by Jonathan Schanzer*

In its final report of July 22, 2004, the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (commonly known as the 9/11 Commission) charged that Congress had failed America. In the commissioners’ judgment, Congress had “adjusted slowly to the rise of transnational terrorism as a threat to national security. In particular, the growing threat and capabilities of [Osama] bin Laden were not understood in Congress … To the extent that terrorism did break through and engage the attention of the Congress as a whole, it would briefly command attention after a specific incident, and then return to a lower rung on the public policy agenda.” Indeed, the commission was unequivocal about “Congress’s slowness and inadequacy in treating the issue of terrorism in the years before 9/11.”[1]

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by Daniel Pipes*

Not the conventional weblog entry but excerpts from a news report today in the Jerusalem Post by Oren Kessler, “Hezbollah warns Israel against maritime border ‘threats’.” The article quotes Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem warning Jerusalem yesterday that the Lebanese government will protect its maritime sovereignty in the face of “Israeli threats” and “will remain vigilant in order to regain its full rights, whatever it takes.” Kessler quotes me in response:

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By Gary Gerofsky

As Iran races to the nuclear finish line, showing off its capabilities with long-range nuclear-tip-ready missiles and every other kind of system that we thought in years past was beyond their capability, we must ask ourselves what will change when next year Iran rules the Middle East by dint of their regional technological nuclear advantage.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Only 13 years ago the Turkish and Syrian governments came close to war, a culmination of long-existing tensions over borders, terrorism, water, contending alliances, and domestic factors. From an account of mine about the mood in October 1998:

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by Steven Shamrak

Editor’s note: This article is in response to a PBS interview with CIA Director Leon Panetta regarding the targeted assassination of Osama bin Laden.

1. That targeted killing of terrorists is an effective and acceptable way to deal with terrorists and state enemies. (Despite the fact that Israel was constantly vilified by international bigots, even for the assassination of Sheik Yasin, founder of Hamas.)
   

   “The authority here was to kill bin Laden” - CIA Director Leon Panetta

2. That covert military operations in a sovereign country can produce desired results and be met with overwhelming international support and cheers. (As long as it is not Israel targeting the Iraqi nuclear reactor.)

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By Fern Sidman

Now that the hoopla over the successful United States “hit” on arch terrorist Osama bin Laden has begun to fade into the annals of history, the stark realization that the US and the free world are still bereft of a concrete plan of action to stem the tide of al-Qaeda terrorism is beginning to set in. Having spent close to 10 years assiduously tracking down the elusive 9/11 mastermind, we hasten to remind the CIA, along with the various and sundry intelligence networks, that the task of eradicating Islamic radicals bent on global domination demands replication of the kind of “muscle” that bagged bin Laden.

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by Daniel Pipes*

The official hymn of the U.S. Marine Corps famously begins with “From the Halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli, we fight our country’s battles on the land as on the sea.” The reference to Tripoli alludes to the Battle of Derna of 1805, the first overseas land combat fought by U.S. troops and a decisive American victory.

Recent fighting in Libya prompts a question: Should the marines be sent anew to the shores of Tripoli, this time to protect not the high seas but the rebellious peoples of Libya rising against their government and calling for assistance as they are strafed from the air by troops loyal to Mu’ammar al-Qaddafi?

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by Andrew M. Roe*

The Afghan conflict has refocused world attention on Waziristan. Once one of the British Empire’s most volatile territories, the remote small province in northwestern Pakistan is now home to Taliban insurgents, al-Qaeda fighters, rogue elements within the Pakistani military, and Western jihadists, who use it as a base to rest, heal, rearm, train, and plan before they launch again across the porous border into Afghanistan. It is also the area where Osama bin Laden and many of his top lieutenants are probably hiding and a regular target for U.S. air strikes against key Taliban personnel. Pakistani military operations destroyed insurgent forces and caused mass civilian dislocation, yet efforts to produce a lasting peace deal with the local tribesmen and the Taliban have proved futile. Waziristan remains a dangerous and unpredictable region with the potential to unhinge President Hamid Karzai’s fragile regime in Afghanistan, threaten the Pakistani government, and pose a major challenge to regional stability.

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By Barry Rubin

In 1978 and 1979 I followed the Iranian revolution on a daily and hourly basis. Even before the hostage crisis, recognizing the importance of this event, I began work on a book. The title? Paved with Good Intentions. This came from the expression, “The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.”

This is precisely might be what is happening now. Out of “good intentions,” the United States is headed–though I hopes it can still be averted–the biggest catastrophe in the history of its relations with the Middle East. Thirty years after Iran’s revolution produced a similar situation, nothing has been learned by U.S. policymakers. Nothing.

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Edited by Antonio Giustozzi. New York: Columbia University Press, 2009. 420 pp. $32

Reviewed by John Williams, U.S. Naval Academy*

In his edited volume, Giustozzi, a fellow at the London School of Economics, has put together a timely and relevant collection of essays that advances the ongoing debate over what he terms the “main war of the early twenty-first century.”

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by Audrey Kurth Cronin
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. 330 pp. $29.95

Reviewed by Max Abrahms*

A battle is raging in terrorism studies. Proponents of the “strategic model” claim that rational people participate in terrorist groups mainly for the political return. Proponents of the “natural systems model” claim that rational people participate in terrorist groups mainly for some form of social gain. The first model argues that terrorists attack civilians for the collective benefit of coercing political concessions, whereas the natural systems model claims that individuals engage in terrorism for the personal, selective benefit of participating in an exciting, tight-knit, social group. Although this debate is spearheaded by academics, it is hardly academic: The question of terrorist motives is fundamental to counterterrorism because one cannot expect to cure a malady without understanding its underlying cause.[1]

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