By Barry Rubin

April, wrote T.S. Eliott, is the cruelest month. But for hopes of peace, freedom, and moderation in the Middle East, June will play that role this year.
In Iran, Ahmadinejad backed by the spiritual guide is about to be reelected. In Lebanon, a regime backed by Iran and Syria is about to be installed.

It shouldn’t be that way. Remember the famous sign in the Clinton for President Headquarters back in 1992, which said, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as the main issue? Well, in the Middle East the equivalent sign would say, “It’s the Islamist revolutions, stupid.”

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By Jonathan Spyer

A month ago, US President Barack Obama announced a new strategy to address the current crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Obama’s plan to ‘disrupt, dismantle and defeat’ al-Qaida and the Taliban in ‘Afpak’ includes deployment of an additional 21,000 US troops in Afghanistan, and an increase in civilian officials to aid in developing the Afghan economy and governmental structures.

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By Isaac Kfir*

This article examines Pakistan’s role in the "war on terror" in light of the transition from the Musharraf presidency to that of Zardari. It opens with Musharraf’s tenure and proceeds to discuss some of the key challenges faced by the current administration in this respect.

On August 18, 2008, Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s beleaguered president, resigned from office, allowing the Speaker of Senate, Muhammad Mian Sumroo to assume the position of interim president. What was surprising was not so much Musharraf’s decision to step down, but rather how smooth the transition from military to civilian rule was: there was no violence or commotion. This was largely due to the fact that both Musharraf and the army had accepted that it was time for a change and that Musharraf’s position had become untenable.^[1] Within weeks, Asif Ali Zardari was elected president by the Pakistani parliament and Sumroo stepped down. Just a year earlier, Zardari, much maligned as "Mr. Ten Percent," had been a convicted felon. Now he was head of the Pakistani state and was hobnobbing with world leaders.^[2]

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By Barry Rubin

For years, India has been subjected to periodic terrorist attacks throughout the country. But what happened in Mumbai is something new and different: a full-scale terrorist war.

This is the kind of threat and problem Israel has been facing for decades. What are the lessons for India from Israel’s experience, points also reflected by India’s own recent history?

First, India needs and has the right to expect international sympathy and help. It will get sympathy but will it get help? Once it is clear that other countries must actually do something, incur some costs, possibly take some risks, everything changes.

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By Barry Rubin

India’s government faces difficult choices and no one should interfere in that hard process. Still, it is worth describing the alternatives New Delhi must ponder and what it might ask the rest of the world to do.

First, of course, no one should criticize India or draw conclusions too quickly. The Indian government will investigate and confer with friendly states. An official conclusion will be reached. Rumors and newspaper articles are not sufficient: the security and intelligence forces must examine the evidence; government must speak.

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By Phyllis Chesler

One of my favorite people came by: Dr. Nancy Kobrin, with whom I have written articles (you may read some of them, here, here, here, and here) and whose work I adore. Dr. Nancy is an Arabist and psycho-analyst whose book about terrorism was once in press at Looseleaf Law, a publisher of law enforcement and counter-terrorism titles. At the last minute, the publisher rejected the work because he was honestly afraid that he would not be able to adequately protect his staff from bomb threats, riots, or lawsuits. How very fragile our political speech turns out to be! This happened long before the brou-ha-ha over the The Jewel of Medina. Whenever we’re together we mean to relax and to even engage in “small” talk — but we never do. Thus, here we are, talking, at our most relaxed. … (Continue reading…)

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Two men on a motorcycle used water pistols to spray acid on girls walking to school Wednesday in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, blinding at least two of them, military spokesmen said. ….

CNN.com, 11/12/08

Also yesterday in Afghanistan, a “… suicide bombing … occurred near a government building hours later that killed and wounded several civilians, including women and children.” And in neighboring Pakistan yesterday, “Gunmen shot dead a U.S. aid official along with his driver as he left his home in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar on Wednesday, a senior police official said.”

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by Supna Zaidi*

Have you seen the little old lady who passes out Jehovah’s Witness literature in your neighborhood? Some people stop and show interest. Others roll their eyes, and keep walking. But, would you ever expect anyone to threaten her? Call her a racist, and try to get her arrested?

Islamists would. And that is exactly what happened to two English Christian ministers who had the nerve to proselytize on a street corner in a predominantly Muslim immigrant area in the UK in 2007.

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~by E.D. Kain, NeoConstant

According to The Long War Journal’s Jane Novak, the US Embassy in Yemen was attacked today by a militant group carrying machine guns, RPG’s, and setting off a series of explosions. The terrorist force was repelled after killing 16 people, and attempting to breach the US compound. After a fierce gun battle, the militants were repelled. No US citizens were killed, though many Yemeni security officers were killed or wounded in the fight.

A group calling itself Yemeni Islamic Jihad took credit for today’s attack. The group last month claimed responsbility for a July suicide car bombing at a police station in Hadramout killed one policeman and injured 18. The police station had been previously bombed with no injuries. Yemeni Islamic Jihad also threatened a future attack in the capital.

This is not the first attack or attempted attack on a US embassy or consulate this year. In July, the US consulate in Ankara, Turkey was attacked leaving several dead. Luckily both attacks proved to be failures, unlike some of the major suicide bombings we’ve seen in India and Afghanistan recently.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

… “We should prepare our children and men for jihad,” she said.

The crowd responded with shrill chants of “we are ready” and “al jihad”. …

Such was the atmosphere at a perverse Islamist rally held last week in Islamabad, Pakistan: Female protesters calling for their children and husbands to kill “infidels” by killing themselves. I hope the generation of Westerners who grew up listening to Crosby Stills Nash & Young’s Teach Your Children will take note. From the Mail Online:

About 2,000 Islamist women gathered at the radical Red Mosque in the Pakistani capital on Wednesday and vowed to raise their children for holy war, days after a suicide bomber killed 18 people after a similar rally.

Chanting slogans of “jihad is our way”, burqa-clad women, some with babies, listened to fiery speeches from the daughter of the mosque’s jailed cleric on the eve of the anniversary of a commando raid on the complex in which more than 100 people died.

“Our mujahideen (fighters) laid down their lives for the enforcement of the Islamic system in Pakistan. We are left behind to carry forward their mission,” the daughter of cleric Abdul Aziz told the tightly guarded rally in the mosque compound. …

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Ottawa, Canada - The Canadian Coalition for Democracies (CCD) is calling on the federal government to review the application for a Canadian visa by Mr. Qazi Hussain Ahmad, who has been invited to speak in Canada this weekend.

“Our research suggests that Qazi Hussain Ahmad is the name of a notorious Pakistani Islamist banned in 2007 from entering Egypt, and in 2004 from entering over 25 European countries for reasons of National Security,” said Alastair Gordon, President, CCD. “We have confirmed that a man by this name has been invited to speak at the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) 34th annual convention endorsed by the Canadian Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR-CAN), the Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA Canada), and the Muslim Association of Canada (MAC), and sponsored by Human Concern International (HCI).”

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By Isaac Kfir

This article examines Pakistan following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the recent parliamentary elections within the confines of the challenges that arise from the need to embrace democracy. The article accepts that Pakistan must contend with a powerful military, rising Islamism, tribalism, an unstable political system, quarreling leaders, and difficult foreign policy issues while it strives to continue to play its role in the global war on terror. The author concludes that only by uniting the different actors and seeking a stable Pakistan can the Islamist threat be defeated.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Reports are circulating that a U.S. Predator drone killed Abu Laith al-Libi, “one of the top al-Qaida operatives in Afghanistan,” in Pakistan’s wild-west Waziristan province. al-Libi is one of America’s 12 most-wanted terrorists — well, at least he was. According to the Canadian Press:

… The killing of such a major al-Qaida figure is likely to embarrass President Pervez Musharraf, who has repeatedly said he would not sanction U.S. military action against al-Qaida members believed to be regrouping in the lawless area near the Afghan border. …

Musharraf has been unwilling to clean up Pakistan’s wild-west for his own political reasons. But recently we’ve found out about his true colors, as he either explicitly ordered Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, or passively allowed it to happen (same difference). This man is not the “friend” many of us once thought him to be. It is time for the U.S. to clean up Pakistan’s tribal areas once and for good, with or without the help of Musharraf, for the sake of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and America herself.

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By Barry Rubin

Much will be said about Benazir Bhutto’s assassination; little will be understood about what it truly means. I’m not speaking here about Pakistan, of course, as important as is that country. But rather the lesson–as if we need any more–for that broad Middle East which begins in Pakistan and ends on the Atlantic Ocean coast.

This is a true story. Back in 1946, an American diplomat asked an Iranian editor why his newspaper angrily criticized the United States but never the Soviet Union. The Iranian said that it was obvious. “The Russians,” he said, “they kill people.”

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By Phyllis Chesler

I knew that trouble had found me yet again when an old Asia hand cautioned me to not “jump off the deep end” and jeopardize my otherwise valuable credibility. Apparently, my second blog about Bhutto’s assassination had begun to ring all kinds of bells and whistles amongst my colleagues, friends, and readers. She felt, understandably, that my bringing a feminist perspective about honor murders to bear on the Bhutto murder revealed a lack of sophistication about Pakistani politics. Point well taken—but read on.

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