By Barry Rubin

Suddenly, the United States has awoken to the fact that in one month Lebanon is likely to be taken over by a radical government and hijacked into the Iran-Syria alliance. Unfortunately, this apparently doesn’t mean it — or European states — are going to do anything about it.

In early June, the odds are — though one can still hope otherwise — that the parliamentary majority will be held by a coalition backed by Tehran and Damascus. Hizballah is not going to “take over” the country politically and that is a point no doubt which will be used by governments and media to prove that there’s no problem.

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By Jonathan Spyer

A meeting was meant to take place on Wednesday, April 22nd, in the Grimond Room at Portcullis House, adjoining the House of Commons in London. The planned meeting was titled “Talk with Hamas” and was meant to feature a video link to Damascus.

Khaled Mashaal, leader of Hamas, was supposed to address members of Parliament and journalists via the link, but he failed, due to a technical glitch.

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by Michael Rubin*

US President Barack Obama’s plan to withdraw troops from Iraq is predicated on an assumption that Iraq’s stability is durable. On 29 January 2009, General Ray Odierno, commander of the Multi-National Force-Iraq, said: “We are getting close to enduring stability, which enables us really to reduce [US military forces].” Advocates of military withdrawal by the United States are optimistic: the 31 January 2009 provincial elections proceeded without much incident.

According to US government figures, violence is down to 2003 levels. Progress, however, has less to do with the governance system, and more to do with key personalities: President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, both of whom met Obama in Baghdad on 7 April, as well as Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani each conciliate crisis and reconcile disparate interests. Without them, stability and security in Iraq may not be sustainable.

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By Janice Kephart, CIS.org

Introduction

The move toward more secure issuance of state identification documents may be in jeopardy. The most recent iteration of the National Governors Association secure ID bill circulating the Senate for signatures for possible introduction, the “Providing for Additional Security in States’ Identification Act of 2009″ or PASS ID Act, gives the appearance of security for drivers licenses and non-driver IDs (DL/ID) when, in fact, security does not exist. The PASS ID Act would provide for insecure issuance practices by the states that, for the most part, were in place prior to 9/11. In many ways, the PASS ID Act is a step backward for most states, or at least an endorsement of the status quo, because nearly all states are implementing elements of the REAL ID Act¹ — the 2005 measure designed to raise state ID standards in response to the 9/11 attacks — even in states that have passed legislation that precludes REAL ID implementation. However the new bill’s mandate to verify an ID applicant’s legal presence in the United States by 2013 is voluntary, as any state can opt out of PASS ID Act requirements.

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by Michael Rubin*

On Apr. 9, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency, announced that the Islamic Republic had installed 7,000 centrifuges in its Natanz uranium enrichment facility. The announcement came one day after the U.S. State Department announced it would engage Iran directly in multilateral nuclear talks.

Proponents of engagement with Tehran say dialogue provides the only way forward. Iran’s progress over the past eight years, they say, is a testament to the failure of Bush administration strategy. President Barack Obama, for example, in his Mar. 21 address to the Iranian government and people, declared that diplomacy “will not be advanced by threats. We seek engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect.”

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By Barry Rubin

In the Israeli political game, there are some things too important to play with. Has the new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu safeguarded Israel’s security and foreign relations while meeting party and coalition needs, and what is the likely result of this new government’s policies internationally?

Netanyahu had to put together a complex web of parties and personalities to get a Knesset majority. The result is a cabinet with more ministers than Jerusalem has rabbis.

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By Thomas Drewing

I have been doing something politically unordinary since the “Stimulus” Bill became law. My unconventional tactic seems very effective, judging by the reactions that I’ve received from the people who have called me to obtain political contributions. I’m having a bit of fun with it, in that perverse way one sometimes does when things seem bleak, and a little bit of fun can soothe the savage soul. I have deliberately NOT been donating money to Republican organizations.

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By Barry Rubin

President Barack Obama has made Turkey one of the first countries he’s visiting, intending to show support for what he thinks is a model moderate Muslim-majority democracy. Unfortunately, his presence and words will reinforce a regime that is increasingly Islamist, close to radical states, and encouraging anti-American propaganda at home.

A big effect of his visit will be to demoralize the opposition, both left and right, which interprets it as endorsing the party in power. He will thus help entrench a regime which is bad for U.S. interests and bad for Turkey.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

… although I did not use the word “terrorism,” I referred to “man-caused” disasters. That is perhaps only a nuance, but it demonstrates that we want to move away from the politics of fear toward a policy of being prepared for all risks that can occur. …

- Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, 3/16/2009

Perhaps only a nuance? Such politically-correct nonsense — pure, unadulterated appeasement of terrorism — seems to be the norm for the Obama administration. According to Der Spiegel, Napolitano “never mentioned the word ‘terrorism’” in her “first testimony to the US Congress as Homeland Security Secretary.” Her absolutely idiotic, morally-relative statement quoted above was in response to the question, “Does Islamist terrorism suddenly no longer pose a threat to your country?” All I can think is, “My G#d, what is happening to the U.S. government?”

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by Daniel Pipes*

With Binyamin Netanyahu, head of the Likud Party, about to become Israel’s next prime minister, one wonders whether he will stick to his more controversial campaign promises – not that of confronting the Iranian threat, which is widely backed, but such as ending Hamas control of Gaza or keeping the Golan Heights.

Two indicators suggest what may lie ahead: (1) the general pattern of the four Likud prime ministers since 1977 and (2) specifically, Netanyahu’s own record as one of those four.

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WASHINGTON (March 2, 2009) — Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano’s refusal to even use the word “terrorism” in remarks prepared for a congressional hearing last week underlines the fact that she has yet to commit to upholding the laws that derive from the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations on border security.

To highlight the importance of these measures, Janice Kephart has prepared the latest installment in her “Border Basics” educational video series, this one entitled “What Is Terrorist Travel?” Kephart, the Director of National Security Policy at the Center for Immigration Studies and former counsel to the 9/11 Commission, concludes that securing against terrorist travel is essential to eliminate the fraud that enables people to enter, stay, and work in this country for illegal purposes.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Tzipi Livni, the head of the Kadima party, can credibly claim victory in the elections on Tuesday because her party won the most seats. Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud party can also claim victory as the head of the largest party in the larger of the two coalitions, the national camp.

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by Daniel Pipes*

In an article earlier this month, “Israel’s Strategic Incompetence in Gaza,” I made three points: that the Israeli leadership unilaterally created its current problems in Gaza, that the war against Hamas meant ignoring the much larger threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, and that the goal of empowering Al-Fatah makes no sense.

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by Daniel Pipes*

With Democrats now in charge of both the executive and legislative branches, what changes might one expect in U.S. policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict?

Personnel appointments so far fit the center-left mold. On the plus side, as analyst Steven Rosen observes, this means that none of the team brings a “defined left agenda of dangerous delusions – indeed, many of them are sensible and intelligent, resistant if not immune to the nonsense that blinds the majority of academicians.” Especially when recalling Barack Obama’s earlier associations (Ali Abunimah, Rashid Khalidi, Edward Said) and the potential alternate “dream teams“, this comes as a relief.

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by Winfield Myers*

Ingrid Mattson, president of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), will deliver a prayer at the National Cathedral during the National Prayer Service on January 21st. The event is part of the festivities for the inauguration of Barack Obama, which occurs January 20. A convert to Islam, Mattson directs the Macdonald Center for the Study of Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations at Hartford Seminary.

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