By Gary Gerofsky

The obsession of the EU, the USA, the UN, the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Russia and even the Vatican to interfere in Israel’s domestic and foreign policy reminds me of the treatment of a Big Brother who has failed to do right in his past and thinks that he can make amends by forcing little brother to make all the sacrifices that Big Brother never has and never will make to satisfy a guilty conscience.

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By Jonathan Spyer

The apparently imminent eclipse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya has re-ignited hope among some Western commentators concerning the so-called Arab Spring. The entry of Libyan rebels to Tripoli is being depicted in some circles as the removal of a major obstacle to the onward march toward freedom alleged to be taking place this year throughout the Arabic-speaking world.

Some of the more enthusiastic observers are now turning their hopeful gaze toward Syria. They hope that with liberty victorious in Libya, the Assad regime will be the next to fall.

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By Barry Rubin

“Please release me let me go
for I don’t love you anymore
To waste our lives would be a sin
Release me and let me love again.”

–”Please Release Me Let Me Go”

Perhaps the most important policymaking development of the last month has been President Barack Obama’s increasingly visible loss of a lot of the foreign policy elite, including considerable segments of the State and Defense departments. Why this is happening is one of the most interested-and highly neglected-stories of this period.

Consider the factors involved:

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by Harsh V. Pant*

As the Afghan war enters its final and most decisive phase, India’s strategic position in the country has turned a full circle. Having maintained a close relationship with the post-Taliban government for years, New Delhi suffered a humiliating setback last January when its warning against the folly of making a distinction “between good Taliban and bad Taliban” was summarily ignored by the Afghanistan Conference in London.[1]

At a stroke, Pakistan squeezed its nemesis from the evolving security architecture by persuading the West that the time had come to incorporate the “moderate” faction of the Taliban into Afghanistan’s future state structure and to give Islamabad a key role in mediating this process.[2] Meanwhile, despite its best attempts to keep a low profile, India and its nationals have been increasingly targeted by extremist forces in Afghanistan. The Indian embassy in Kabul was struck twice over the past two years, and guest houses frequented by Indians were attacked with nine Indian nationals killed.[3]

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By Alexander Maistrovoy

Russia is the ally of deadly enemies of Israel. Senior Russian officials have met with the political leader of Hamas, Moscow cooperates with Teheran and supplies Syria with rockets, knowing quite well that some of these weapons end up in the hands of Hezbollah and Hamas.

It is hardly possible to define the Putin-Medvedev regime as a developed democracy. It is a kind of Byzantine form of government with a democratic facade.

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A briefing by Dirk Vandewalle*

On March 11, before the United States and its allies launched attacks against Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi, Dirk Vandewalle, a professor in the department of government at Dartmouth College and author of A History of Modern Libya, spoke to the Middle East Forum via conference call, explaining why it is not in U.S. interest to engage Libya militarily.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

While I admire the courage of brave Russians standing up to Stalin, er, ah, Putin, the below-detailed story, “Rare anti-Putin rally held in Moscow,” is not a significant sign of liberalization:

Up to 500 protesters from left wing and liberal anti-Kremlin opposition groups gathered on Moscow’s Pushkin Square to call for Vladimir Putin’s removal, kicking off what they said was the start of a campaign to oust him. …

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by Alexander Maistrovoy

Clinton is right: “Russians” in Israel don’t really want peace, that kind of peace which Bill Clinton imposed on Serbs in Kosovo.

Clinton’s words that Russian-speaking Israelis are an obstacle to reaching peace can be understood in different ways. Excluding their emotional component, it is necessary to recognize that the immigrants from the former Soviet Union are most opposed to the Israeli/Palestinian peace process (or what is implied by this term). Let’s look at the root of this phenomenon.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Lithuania is continuing to distance itself from its very threatening neighbor, Mother Russia, aka Vladimir Putin’s new Russian/Soviet empire. Good for Lithuania. The tiny but very successful former “Soviet Republic” has “…invited investors to bid on building a nuclear power plant to reduce the Baltic country’s dependency on energy imports from Russia.” This follows Lithuania’s eager joining of NATO and the EU — frowned upon by a very resentful, overbearing babushka: Russia.

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by George L. Simpson, Jr.*

Recent years have witnessed the rise of irregular but frequently intensive opposition to U.S. global preeminence by Russia and China. In their own ways, and in pursuit of their own interests, each of these authoritarian governments has established an informal alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran. For its part, the Khamenei regime in Tehran continues to view the United States as the “Great Satan” and works against American interests by engaging in international terrorism,[1] aiding in attacks on U.S. and coalition personnel in Iraq[2] and Afghanistan,[3] working to derail any resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute,[4] and most of all by seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

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By Barry Rubin

For more than a year I have repeatedly pointed out that the Obama Administration’s strategy of increasing the level of sanctions against Iran has been a mess. Deadlines set by the U.S. government for September and then December weren’t met. Even afterward, the government had not even established publicly (and it seems not even privately) its basic position on what sanctions should be. Congressional proposals for a tougher stance were discouraged and ignored.

Now President Obama once again assures us in early April:

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By Barry Rubin

The story of the U.S. engagement with Syria and the sanctions issue regarding Iran’s nuclear program are fascinating. Each day there’s some new development showing how the Obama Administration is acting like a deer standing in the middle of a busy highway admiring the pretty automobile headlights.

Or to put it a different way, it is like watching the monster sneak up behind someone. Even though you know he’s not going to turn around, you can’t help but watch in fascinated horror and yelling out: “Look out!” But he pays no attention.

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By Barry Rubin

The year 2010 is going to be interesting. Well, all years in the Middle East are interesting; many of them are far too interesting.

For the Obama Administration, I’m going to predict, it will not be a fun year. True, the best face will be put on things. Since it is protected-perhaps next year to a lesser degree — by the media, the administration has a special advantage over its predecessors. Yet there are two huge and two potentially serious problems which it cannot solve.

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A briefing by Patrick Clawson*

Patrick Clawson is an economist, deputy director of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, and senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly. He graduated with a B.A. from Oberlin College in 1973 and a Ph.D. from the New School of Social Research in 1978. He taught at Seton Hall University in 1979-81 and served as an economist for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Mr. Clawson addressed the Middle East Forum on November 4, 2009 in Philadelphia.

Mr. Clawson’s talk revolved around two key points concerning the present situation in Iran.

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By R. A. Sprinkle

What follows was first posted in 2006. It remains applicable to the current crises, if not more so. There have been some grammatical corrections and editing for clarity, but the content is essentially consistent with the original.

I believe we are living in an age [2006] of transition when the world as we know it today will see a radical change. This global transition is brought on by modernization and globalization combined with the unification and consolidation of powers. Unfortunately, although knowledge has been built upon from generation to generation, giving mankind more power than in any time in history, at the same time, mankind is reverting back morally, and tribal impulses are becoming the guiding force. These primitive impulses, although cloaked in sophistication and newly acquired knowledge, inspire ideologies that are eroding the foundation of our rights and freedoms. They also devalue individual rights and promote forced collectivism (fascism, communism, socialism, and almost all other “-isms”).

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