By Barry Rubin

There are widespread reports about an imminent deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program. Here’s how the New York Times optimistically presents the proposal:

“Iranian negotiators have agreed to a draft deal that would delay the country’s ability to build a nuclear weapon for about a year, buying more time for President Obama to search for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear standoff.”

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by Tuncay Babalı*

Turkey is increasingly at the crossroads of the world energy trade. Because of tanker traffic through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, Turkey has become an important north-south oil transit route. The Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipelines make Turkey an important east-west route as well. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. As the importance of Turkey’s energy sector has grown, Turkey has come under increasing pressure. Turkey finds itself caught between competing U.S. and Russian interests as a result of the August 2008 Georgia conflict. Turkish-Iranian energy trade has also brought Washington’s ire down on Turkey. Turkey’s efforts to minimize problems with its neighbors may make it popular with some, but it has led others to question the strength of the U.S.-Turkish strategic partnership. Analysis of Ankara’s options show that it has little choice besides greater caution and engagement, and that energy concerns rather than a reassessment of its Western ties motivate its outreach to Russia and, to a certain extent, Iran.

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By Bill Park*

The Gulen movement is attracting increasing and sometimes hostile attention both inside Turkey and beyond as a result of its increasing activity, wealth, and influence. Inspired by the thoughts of its founder, Sufi scholar Fethullah Gulen, it has established hundreds of educational institutions, as well as media outlets, dialogue platforms, and charities. Well-established in Turkey, it has expanded into the wider Turkic world and, increasingly, beyond. Yet its structure, ambitions, and size remain opaque, making assessment of its impact and power difficult.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is busily rewriting the history of former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin’s blood-thirsty dictatorship over the Soviet Union. So says the BBC in a story entitled, “Stalin could win Russian vote,” published today. This is a frightening development given the well-documented terror under which the Soviet people lived during Stalin’s reign. But it is not unexpected given Putin’s own history. Indeed, this is par-for-the-course for Putin, who spent 17 years working for the dreaded KGB, one of the largest and most brutal “security services” in world history. Vladimir has surrounded himself with other former KGB goons, so in the Kremlin nowadays “[u]nder Mr Putin, influence stems from the former Soviet organs of repression.”

At least the BBC isn’t buying into Putin’s historical revisionism:

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

A Russian-owned shop in Brooklyn, calling itself the “Costco of the ethnic Eastern European market,” has stopped selling packages of sunflower seeds sporting a very anti-Semitic label after pressure from local Jewish groups. This is not an isolated incident, as anti-Semitism is on the rise in the U.S. It is disgusting to think that the shop owners would even consider stocking their shelves with such blatantly bigoted branding. Here are the details from Ynet:

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By Barry Rubin

The return of Russian power in the Middle East, next to Iran’s nuclear weapons’ campaign, is the region’s most important new issue. While far less threatening than the Soviet bloc’s Cold War backing for radical Arab states, this development poses some major problems for U.S. leaders, Israeli interests, and Middle East politics.

Between 1956 and 1990, the Soviet Union bestrode the regional stage like a colossus, the alternative model and sponsor that indirectly inspired, armed, and protected the domination of radical Arab nationalist regimes, groups, and ideas. Moscow’s goals were to win the competition with the United States, extend its influence, and gain access to strategic locations and resources.

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By Alexander Murinson*

With the conclusion of the Cold War, the trilateral axis (Israel-Turkey-Azerbaijan) in the expanded Middle East emerged. The issue of energy security as a component of this relationship has remained largely unexplored. First, this article elucidates the transformation of the concept of security in the post-Cold War period. It then places the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian region in the context of the energy security needs of energy-poor Turkey and Israel. The importance of transportation routes from the Caspian for the Jewish state are highlighted, and the potential of Caspian petrochemicals for cooperation in energy field between Israel, Turkey Israel are explored.

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By Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez*

Abstract: The authors continue their analysis of Soviet involvement in the 1967 War with a discussion of new evidence and a response to criticisms regarding their controversial thesis that the USSR provoked that war, sought to use the conflict to eliminate Israel’s nuclear capability, and seriously considered direct intervention. Publication of this article is intended to further the debate on these issues.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

When Putin doesn’t like bad press, he has the source killed. Pretty simple — for a tyrant, that is:

The owner of an internet site critical of the Russian authorities in the volatile region of Ingushetia has been shot dead in police custody.

Magomed Yevloyev, owner of the ingushetiya.ru site, was a vocal critic of the region’s administration. …

This is Putin’s “democracy:” executing website owners in police custody, shutting down the free press, assassinating journalists (Anna Politkovskaya), poisoning dissidents (Litvinenko), grabbing private companies (Yukos) for his own portfolio, interfering in Ukraine’s elections (poisoning the opposition candidate), rigging Russia’s elections, bullying Estonia for no reason, trying to rig the Ukraine’s elections and poisoning presidential candidate Yushchenko, supplying weapons to South Ossetian extremists, violating Norwegian airspace, keeping a military force in Moldova, etc. And of course, invading little Georgia.

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By Jonathan Spyer

President Bashar Assad of Syria began a trip to Russia this week. Russian news agency RIA Novosti has quoted the Syrian Information Ministry as confirming that the trip will last two days.

According to the statement, the purpose of the trip is to discuss bilateral relations and the latest world and regional developments, particularly relating to the Middle East peace process and to Iraq.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Russian President Putin’s goon-squad is using “’scorched-earth’ tactics” in Georgia, has promised to annex territory (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), and now is threatening to attack Poland. This is pure madness, but look at the reaction from Europe (or, should I say, lack thereof?), as described by the brave Russian soul, Garry Kasparov:

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~by E.D. Kain

“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”

~WInston Churchill

The Russians are tricky. They have suckered the world into thinking that they are a more peaceful, progressive nation than they were during the Soviet era. We have been duped into believing this over the years, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. Now, as Georgia burns, and the world wonders whether a ceasefire will hold or whether Putin’s puppet Medvedev will simply (as the Russians so often do) say one thing and do another…

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By Douglas Farah*

I am not a Russia expert and defer to Robert Kagan and others to paint the macro picture of what Russia’s incursion into Georgia means.

But there are several issues, outside of these, that need to be looked at in terms of Russia in the greater world, and our relationship to Russia, particularly in counter-terrorism and weapons proliferation issues.

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By Canadian Coalition for Democracies

Ottawa, Canada - Russia’s invasion of Georgia has made public the brutal face of the Russian bear. Again, Russia has set out to crush independence, undermine sovereignty and mock the democratic aspirations of its former vassal states. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had set back the Russian bear only momentarily, its weakness and lies exposed. But the Russian bear has returned menacingly and turned the clock back to 1968 when it crushed the Prague spring as it is doing today in Georgia.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I’ve often wondered why Russia freed itself from communism, only to slide back to the paternalistic ways of authoritarian rule (e.g., Putin). Even though there’s been obvious vote rigging, and squelching of the media, it’s probably fair to say that the major of Russians voted for Putin because he makes them feel secure. While skimming some headlines this week, I finally found some insight into Russia’s love for paternalism — literally.

Recently, a Russian judge threw a woman’s sexual harassment case out of court on the grounds that, “If we had no sexual harassment we would have no children.” Huh? Read the statistics — and weep. From the Telegraph:

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