by Jonathan Spyer

The recent events in Beirut pose a simple, fundamental question: Who rules in Lebanon?

The answer proposed by Hizbullah last week is that the government of Fuad Saniora and Saad Hariri is to be permitted to hold the formal reins of administration - on condition that they well understand the inherent limits of their position. Most important, any attempt to interfere with the Iranian-created and Iranian- and Syrian-sponsored military infrastructure in the country will result in a swift, disproportionate and bloody response.

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by Jonathan Spyer

Whatever the Israelis offer, Syria won’t give up its alliance with Iran, which allows it to punch above its weight in the region.

With attention in the Middle East focusing on the US congressional hearings regarding a possible Syrian nuclear programme, the Syrian newspaper al-Watan made a surprising announcement last Wednesday. According to the newspaper, Israel, via Turkish channels, had in the previous 24 hours expressed its willingness to exchange the entirety of the Golan Heights area for peace with Syria.

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By Barry Rubin

One of the things least understood by people in the West is the framework–or should I say straitjacket?–of the dominant ideology in the Arabic-speaking world in shaping thought, speech, and political alternatives. This shows up in the smallest of exchanges. But atoms, too, are very tiny yet make up all the wide variety of things in the world.

Call it AIDS (Arab Ideological Doctrine Syndrome), a disease that doesn’t just threaten the Middle East, it’s been a plague since the 1950s with few signs of a let-up. Here’s a little example that illustrates the big picture. On February 25, Lebanese cabinet minister Marwan Hamada gave an interview to Press TV. It is a commonplace for supporters of Lebanon’s government to be accused of being Western agents, an implication often repeated in the Western media referring to it as “pro-U.S.”

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By Barry Rubin

A funny thing happened at the funeral of Imad Mugniyah. Those who had for years been denying any connection with him and his international terrorist activities–Iran, Syria, and Hizballah–suddenly admitted that he was one of their favorite people.

At the same time, other critical points came out. Mugniyah’s critical position as the link between those three allies, in their conduct of terrorism and subversion, stood out clearly. In addition, Mugniyah’s career as an international terrorist, who often operated against Western targets, showed how Hizballah–along with its backers in Tehran and Damascus–were second only to al-Qaida in their global operations of violence.

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By Barry Rubin

Ironic, isn’t it, that radical forces threaten a wide range of violence, sanctions, and other behaviors against democratic states while insisting–along with their Western apologists–that any attempt by their victims to put any kind of pressure on them is useless.

Think about it. Every time someone proposes, say, economic sanctions (on Iran or Syria), an international tribunal investigating its involvement in terrorism (on Syria), military operations or killing terrorist leaders (against Hamas, Hizballah, Iraqi insurgents, al-Qaida, the Kurdish PKK, or the Taliban), diplomatic isolation, or even not giving financial aid (Hamas), a chorus of voices says: it won’t work.

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By Barry Rubin

The Middle East is a region where so many things seem to happen, so little appears to change, and far too much is said about it all.

Partly this is due to the area’s turbulence; partly to obsessive hyper-reporting in an era when everyone claims to be a Middle East expert and the most basic exercise of logic is often absent. Yet, at the same time, silly ideas and policies often also correspond to real needs.

Here’s a list of examples:

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by Michelle Mostovy-Eisenberg*

In order to fully understand Middle Eastern politics and society, you must first grasp the underlying basis of Arab culture — specifically, the tribal organization central to life in the region, according to anthropologist and author Philip Carl Salzman.

During a lunchtime event held last week at the Center City law firm of Pepper Hamilton, about 50 people gathered to learn about the roots of contemporary Arab life and the potent affect it can have on conflicts in the region. The lecture was sponsored by the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based think tank.

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Despite UN Designation, Arab Culture Deserves Better ‘Capital’ Than Syria

By Jonathan Spyer and Nir Boms

The ancient city of Damascus received another mark of recognition last week. Following in the wake of Liverpool - which was recognized as the European Capital of Culture, and Stavanger in Norway, which was named the non-EU European Capital of Culture, UNESCO last week designated Damascus as the Arab Capital of Culture for 2008.

In a speech celebrating this decision, Syrian President Bashar Assad chose to highlight a very specific element of his capital city’s culture — namely, Damascus’s self-appointed role as the center of Arab ‘resistance.’ “Damascus is the capital of resistance culture by symbolizing Arab culture” he declared, and went on to define ‘resistance culture’ as “the culture of freedom and defending freedom.”

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By Jonathan Spyer

The recent killing of Captain Wissam Eid of the Lebanese Internal Security Force, and the shooting deaths of eight Shi’ite rioters - including four Hizbullah supporters - at the Mar Mikhael intersection in southern Beirut last week offered the latest evidence of the potential of the political stalemate in Lebanon to spill over into renewed civil conflict.

Substantive compromise on the issues dividing the country seems impossible. The overriding cause of the crisis is Syria’s determination to prevent political stability in its smaller neighbor on any but its own terms.

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by Eyal Zisser*

On May 27, 2007, Syrians elected Bashar al-Assad to a second 7-year term as president in a referendum in which, according to results published two days later by the Ministry of Interior, Assad received the support of 97.62 percent of the voters, a slight improvement upon the 97.24 percent support he received in the first referendum.[1] Such results, though, have little significance. Syrian referendums are a government-orchestrated show and have nothing in common with normal democratic procedure. Nevertheless, the referendum is a reminder that Assad has survived seven years in power. His regime appears more stable than ever, no mean feat given that Bashar’s rule has coincided with perhaps the most difficult years the Baath regime has known in the past four decades.

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By Barry Rubin

The two main areas where the alliance of radical forces in the Middle East confront Western interests and pose a danger of major instability are Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons and Syria’s efforts to destabilize Iraq. This article considers these two issues. First, it examines what effect Iran’s obtaining nuclear weapons would have on Middle East politics, with an emphasis on scenarios that would occur even if Iran never actually uses them. Second, it asks why it is that the interests of Iran’s ally, Syria, compel it to destabilize Iraq.

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By Barry Rubin

A strange malady has apparently descended on part of Israel’s, much of America’s, and most of Europe’s elite. Let’s call it Syriantoxication, the belief that there is a real chance to make peace with Syria and–in its extreme version–that Lebanon should be sacrificed for that goal.

To call this wishful thinking is understatement. Why is this happening?

Few Israelis believe that negotiations with Palestinians will lead anywhere. Those on the right think it’s dangerous, those in the center believe it can be done without harm and for limited benefit, those on the left doubt it will work but wishful thinking compels them to hope even without conviction.

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By Barry Rubin

The idea that poverty, relative backwardness, violence, and instability must be caused by external circumstances is engrained in much of the Western intelligentsia. It encourages a tendency to apologize for those regimes and radical groups which are the main cause of continued stagnation and suffering.

In fact, of course, the problems are very much-and usually more-based on history, culture, geography, ideology, and choices made. For example, Muslim-majority countries have much lower participation of women in the economy; are more rural and agricultural; and have had no Enlightenment or industrial revolution. Governments don’t care about developing good health and educational systems. Lack of freedom and cultural restrictions–things changed and challenged in Europe from the sixteenth century onwards–harm economic development and social progress. And so on.

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by Adam Pechter*

On November 8, 2005, Syrian police arrested Syrian physician and political activist Kamal al-Labwani as he arrived at Damascus International Airport upon his return from a trip to France and the United States. In Washington, he had met with officials at the White House.[1] A Syrian court charged him with “communicating with a foreign country and inciting it to initiate aggression against Syria.”[2] While imprisoned, his fate remained uncertain pending sentencing. On December 13, 2006, President George W. Bush called for Bashar al-Assad’s regime to “immediately free all political prisoners” and named six imprisoned dissidents, including Labwani.[3]

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By Barry Rubin

The alternative Western view of Middle East strategy–so influential in academic, media, and to some extent diplomatic circles–has a six-point program that boils down as:

Make deals with Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah; ally with Muslim Brotherhoods; and split Iran and Syria.

Those more extreme who advocate this approach are sympathetic to these forces, seeing them as more misunderstood victim than aggressive oppressor; the more moderate among them merely think the radicals can be moderated through concessions and confidence-building measures. In other words, they are not really adversaries but either already good guys or can be converted into playing that role.

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