by David Schenker*

In September 2008, the U.S. Federal Court in Washington, D.C., rendered a $413 million civil judgment against the government of Syria for its provision of support and material aid to the killers of two American contractors in Iraq.[1] Syria’s appeal is pending, but should it lose, the victims’ families will undoubtedly endeavor to attach Syrian assets in the United States and abroad.

Until now, with the exception of sanctions, financial designations, and periodic cross-border direct action, Washington has imposed little cost on Damascus for its consistent support for terrorist attacks in Iraq since the 2003 war. And while the financial implications of this court verdict are unlikely to change Damascus’s standing support for terrorism, it will impose an unprecedented price on Bashar al-Assad’s increasingly reckless regime.

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by Gary Gerofsky

Let’s make it simple by calling the Fatah — Hamas marriage “Fatas” for the sake of brevity. Fatas is no peace movement and does not follow the teachings of Ghandi nor Martin Luther King.

And yet recent headlines from the left and emanating from would-be conquerors in the Palestinian camp would have us believe otherwise, read: Israel fears Palestinian nonviolence, Here comes your non-violent resistance, Non-Violent Resistance.

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by Daniel Pipes*

After decades of stasis, the Middle East is in uproar. With too much going on to focus on a single place, here’s a review of developments in four key countries.

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When I asked, “Is Syria Next?,” I really didn’t expect events to move so fast in one of the Arab World’s most repressive regimes. Perhaps the image of Saddam living in a hole, or Gaddafi fighting for his pathetic life, or Egypt’s army abandoning General Hosni Mubarak, or anti-government protests spreading across the Gulf States, have convinced Syria’s “leader” Bashar al-Assad that he’d prefer not to follow the same fate. Perhaps not. Bashar and his father have been nothing short of ruthless, evil dictators. Nonetheless, this morning we wake to find that:

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Not surprisingly, the snake-pit which is the Arab World — specifically Egypt — is concentrating on hatred of Israel as opposed to creating free, economically sound, and open societies. DEBKAfile, a highly reliable source on Middle Eastern politics, has found evidence that one of the fruits of Egypt’s revolution may be the betrayal of that country’s peace treaty with Israel:

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Will the Qaddafi-like, “socialist” dictatorship of Syria led by Bashar al-Assad soon fall to a peoples’ uprising? Some observers consider the words “dissent” and “Syria” to be oxymoronic. The ruling Assad dynasty (from the tiny, non-Muslim Alawite minority) has a strong security apparatus and is absolutely brutal. Remember that in 1982, papa Hafez al-Assad shelled the city of Hama, killing more than 20,000, to crush an Islamist rebellion (and, of course, lots of civilians). But there have been courageous voices of dissent (see here, here, here), and — most significantly with popular revolutions going on right now in Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc. — just yesterday, “At least three protesters have been shot dead in the south Syrian city of Deraa as security forces clamped down on a protest rally.”

There’s no doubt that, starting with President Bush’s prescient toppling of Saddam, ripples started spreading in the Middle East, and the notion that, “Hey, if they can vote and start businesses, why can’t we?,” is infectious. Lebanon had its “Cedar Revolution” and small steps towards political loosening up began in places like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These ripples have culminated in the recent upheavals in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. If Syrians are willing to risk their lives for freedom against horrid tyrants like Bashar al-Assad, anything’s possible. Vive la liberté, égalité, et fraternité!

Oh, one question to all you morons out there who idealize murderous thugs like Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, and Kim Jong Il: Are you crying because your “socialist” buddies like Qaddafi and Assad are in trouble?

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by Daniel Pipes*

Unprecedented convulsions across the Middle East, from Morocco to Iran, prompt three reflections:

First, these rebellions fit into the context of a regional chessboard, what I call the Middle East cold war. On one side stands the “resistance” bloc led by Iran and including Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Qatar; it seeks to shake up the existing order with a new one, more piously Islamic and hostile to the West. On the other side stands the status quo bloc led by Saudi Arabia and including most of the rest of the region (implicitly including Israel); it prefers things to stay more or less as they are.

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By Jonathan Spyer

Events have moved fast in Lebanon. The country now faces the prospect of a government controlled by Hizbullah and consisting solely of the movement and its allies.

Parts of Lebanon looked in danger of slipping into chaos on Tuesday, as angry Sunnis took to the streets for a “Day of Rage” in protest of what they called Hizbullah’s “coup.”

They were responding to the securing of a parliamentary majority for Hizbullah’s preferred prime ministerial candidate, Najib Mikati. Mikati received the backing of 65 members of the 128-member parliament earlier this week, clearing the way for his appointment as prime minister.

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by Hilal Khashan*

Recent developments in Lebanon have shown that the preconditions for restoring its sovereignty have not yet materialized. The demise of the “Cedar Revolution” and the fragmentation of the “March 14 Coalition” have set the country back to the era of Syrian domination. The crisis associated with the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri and the formation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) afford yet another stark demonstration that the country remains a victim of regional encroachment and that the loyalties of its leaders remain as sectarian as ever.

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By Jonathan Spyer

US President Barack Obama’s recent decision to appoint a new ambassador to Damascus is further proof positive of the effectiveness of the strategy pursued by Syria over the last half decade. It also showcases the sense that the current US administration appears to be navigating without a compass in its Middle East diplomacy.

The appointment of experienced and highly regarded regional hand Robert Ford to the embassy in Damascus is not quite the final burial of the policy to “isolate” Syria. The 2003 Syria Accountability Act and its sanctions remain in effect. But with Syria now in possession of a newly minted American ambassador, in supposedly pivotal negotiations with Saudi Arabia over the Special Tribunal in Lebanon, with its alliance with Iran intact, having repaired relations with Iraq, and in continued, apparently cost-free defiance of the International Atomic Energy Agency over inspections of its nuclear sites, the office of President Bashar Assad could be forgiven for feeling slightly smug.

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by Simcha Katsnelson*

In April 2007, Anwar al-Bunni, a top Syrian human rights activist and attorney, was sentenced to five years imprisonment for “disseminating false information likely to undermine the morale of the nation … slandering and insulting state institutions,” and “joining an international group without the government’s authorization.” Though his first sentencing, it followed years of constant harassment from the Syrian authorities, including threats against family members, smear campaigns aimed at dissuading potential clients from seeking his services, and around-the-clock surveillance.[1] Instead of taking any action on Bunni’s behalf, the bar association in Damascus suspended him from numerous cases he litigated and threatened him with disbarment.[2]

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by Dennis Mitzner and Ariel Solomon*

As recent decades have been plagued by Islamic terrorism and wars in the Middle East, Islam has moved to the center of Western political discourse. And Daniel Pipes has been at the center of this debate, providing tens of millions with his insightful analysis. This analysis has made Dr. Pipes an authority on matters related to Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. In addition to providing analysis through his personal website and the Middle East Forum, which he founded, Pipes travels around the world, speaking at universities, think tanks, and other venues. His appearances often provoke disruptions and angry protests, while simultaneously arousing fervent support.

We sat down with him to talk about Israel, Iran, Barack Obama’s presidency, and other timely issues. He also reminisced about a debate — which he calls a highlight of his career — in London in 2007 in which he and a British neo-conservative, Douglas Murray, defeated their opponents, London Mayor Ken Livingstone and Salma Yaqoob, a local Respect-Party politician from Birmingham.

Pipes has tough words for the Israeli political leadership. According to him, Israel is simply trying to cope as crises occur; its leadership lacks a strategic vision or a plan to deal with basic security issues. In Pipes’ view, Israel has become a dramatic opposite of what the young country was in the 1950s and after, when it was led by a talented leadership with a vision of Israel’s long term interests.

The interview took place in Herzliya, Israel on September 16, 2010.

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By Jonathan Spyer

The diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks earlier this week confirm that the key strategic process taking place in the Middle East is the push for regional dominance by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The documents show that the Iranian nuclear program is only the most worrisome element of a broader effort, as there is additional evidence of Iranian involvement and interference in political processes across the region.

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By Barry Rubin

Editor’s note: See “What are the Wikileaks?”

Please forgive me for saying this, but what really amazed me in reading the Wikileaks was how thoroughly they proved points I’ve been making for years. I wouldn’t have had the nerve to say that except that readers have been telling me the same thing.

1. Iran steadily smuggled arms to Hizballah using various means including in ambulances and medical vehicles during the 2006 war. This violates the laws of war. At times, the media has condemned Israel for attacking ambulances though it showed Hamas was also using such vehicles for military and arms-smuggling operations. Moreover, the postwar UN force proved consistently ineffective in stopping smuggling while the U.S. government did not denounce Iran, Syria, and Hizballah for breaking the ceasefire arrangements.

2. Israeli leaders have repeatedly made clear in diplomatic discussions their acceptance of a two-state solution but warned that the Palestinian leadership sought Israel’s destruction.

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By Barry Rubin

Even when you say the right thing it can only highlight the fact that you haven’t been doing it. Take President Barack Obama’s statement on Lebanon. The wording is all correct, yet it only makes the fact that this has nothing to do with actual U.S. policy stand out even more vividly.

Thus, when Obama said that he is committed to keeping Lebanon free of “terrorism,” the fact is that-in part due to weak U.S. policy-the country is largely under the control of Hizballah, a terrorist group. Right now, Hizballah doesn’t have to make many terrorist attacks since it has already used terrorism successfully to gain veto power over state policy.

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