By Lee Harris

“THE AGE OF illusions is over,” the historian Walter Laqueur wrote recently, referring to the illusions the West continues to entertain about the confrontation with radical Islam. Needless to say, Laqueur did not mean that we in the West no longer have any illusions on this subject; those still abound. He meant, rather, that we can no longer afford to harbor them and that the time has come to shed them. Yet human beings have great difficulty in freeing themselves from illusions — even quite dangerous ones — as long as they offer comfort and provide peace of mind. The best place to start the freeing process is by heeding those who are willing to tell us disturbing truths. Barry Rubin, the distinguished scholar of the Middle East, falls into this tiny minority. His brilliant and provocative new book, The Truth about Syria, not only challenges the illusions of those naturally inclined to prefer lovely daydream over harsh reality; it also challenges the illusions of those in the West who, by their own definition, are hard-nosed realists and wily pragmatists.

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By Barry Rubin

Working on new material for the seventh edition of the Israel-Arab Reader, a documentary work that I edit along with Walter Laqueur, reminds me that there is nothing like examining old material as a way to gain new insights.

This edition updates the book whose current contents ended in 2000 with the failure of the peace process. The most important developments since then are basically the renewed intifada; Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip; the growing direct involvement of Hizballah and Iran, including the 2006 war; and Hamas’ triumph over Fatah in the 2006 elections and in seizing control of the Gaza Strip.

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By Barry Rubin

Quick! Tell me. Who’s desperate to make a deal? Who acts as if they are the weaker party, eager to negotiate solutions in order to end their people’s suffering and the costs of conflict?

Certainly not Iran. It has been pushing ahead with its nuclear program for more than three years during a period of intense Western diplomatic effort, lots of talk about sanctions, and even the implementation of some. Iran is indifferent to threats of attack or warnings of isolation. To a large extent — but not completely — the regime thinks the West is bluffing. But if Tehran really sought nuclear energy, not bombs, it could easily cooperate and have power stations in operation far faster. And if Iran was really acting out of fear of being surrounded by American power, it could help resolve the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq — instead of inflaming them — in exchange for U.S. forces withdrawing more quickly.

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by Robert G. Rabil*

The Iranian and Syrian relationship with Hezbollah developed from a combination of ideological, domestic, and regional factors. Both Tehran and Damascus found Hezbollah to be a useful proxy to further regional objectives. Today, however, Hezbollah’s position has changed. Tehran’s growing strength is matched by Damascus’s regional weakness. As overt Syrian suzerainty over Lebanon fades and Hezbollah increases its regional role without regard to the Lebanese government, the nature of Hezbollah’s relations to Syria has changed. The group has outgrown its subservient relationship to Damascus. Hezbollah is no longer the junior partner in the axis.

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By Barry Rubin

Everybody in Washington has been waiting for General David H. Petraeaus to give his report on the Iraq war. Expectations became most inflated, as if he would deliver America of this seemingly unsolvable problem in a messianic manner.

Now Petraeaus has spoken and he has done a pretty good job. There are some major paradoxes in his analysis and prescription but given the nature of the issue that was certainly inevitable.

For Democrats, eager to have an American withdrawal from Iraq, Petraeaus became something of a trap. To show they were patriotic and supported the troops, congressional Democrats praised Petraeaus. Now, however, disliking some of the things he said, they look rather craven trying to find ways to criticize him.

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Panel Discussion, MERIA

The U.S. Department of State’s International Information Programs (IIP) in Washington D.C., the Public Affairs Office at the U.S. Embassy in Israel, and the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center jointly held an international videoconference seminar focusing on both domestic and foreign affairs in Lebanon. Israeli and U.S. experts examined the balance of and struggle for power in the country, external factors, and future prospects.

Brief biographies of the participants can be found at the end of the article.* This seminar is part of the GLORIA Center’s Experts Forum series.

Dr. Paul A. Jureidini: Hizballah will have to decide whether it will remain within the country’s framework; or whether it wants to pull another "Hamas," seize the territories it controls, and run them as a quasi-independent state. This could happen as a fact which is formally ignored or as part of a situation in which Lebanon has two governments.

There is no question that Hizballah represents the Shi’a on two counts only: It is the protector of all the gains that the Shi’a have made from 1975 until now, and the Shi’a are determined to maintain these gains. Two, there is no question that when it comes to Hizballah vs. Israel, the Shi’a community will back Hizballah. But Hizballah, in my opinion, has lost a lot of prestige in Lebanon–and in the Arab world–since the summer of 2006, due to its war with Israel as well as later events in which there have been clashes between communities.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I hope the Lebanese are stepping up to the plate. Having vast swaths of their country under the control of thugs — Palestinian/al-Qaeda terrorists, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran — must get old, and be really frustrating. But today, Lebanese people backed up their military in helping to clean things up:

Lebanon’s army crushed the last remnants of a militant group in a ferocious gunbattle Sunday that killed 39 of the fighters, ending a bloody three-month siege at a Palestinian refugee camp that was the country’s worst internal violence in years.

Nearby villages celebrated with fireworks, drumming and dancing after the government declared victory. …

Residents of nearby villages, armed with guns and sticks, fanned out to protect their houses and prevent the fighters from seeking refuge and melting into the local population, state TV reported. Smoke billowed from fields where the army set fires to deny militants a hiding place.

Mohammed Khodor Najib, 65, boasted about how he captured a militant in Mohammara, a farming community near the camp.

“I found one of them hiding in my garden,” he said. Using a hunting rifle, he opened fire. “I hit him and handed him over to the army.” …

One must wonder where Hezbollah stands regarding the following statement, as their own elimination would be the logical conclusion of the current course of events:

The joy cut through the deep political divisions in the country, with supporters of both the government and opposition praising the army.

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By Barry Rubin

Lebanon may be beginning one of the most turbulent periods in its all-too-tumultuous history. As the world looks on with apparent indifference, Islamist and Iran-led forces may be on the verge of a new victory over Arab nationalists and just about everyone else.

With what can only be called astounding courage, most Lebanese Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim politicians have stood up to the Shia Muslim group Hizballah as well as its Iranian and Syrian backers. Hizballah is well-financed from Tehran and Damascus; the government–and even less its constituent elements–receive relatively little international help.

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By Barry Rubin

Engage, moderate, and split–that’s the mantra for Middle East policy of the wrong-headed in many foreign ministries, newspaper editorial offices, universities, and other places where the rapidly growing international bad-ideas industry is centered.

Yet nothing could seem more self-evident than these propositions. What could possibly be wrong with engaging radical forces, persuading them to change their ways, and breaking up their alliances?

I’m glad you asked. Here is how these apparently obviously correct ideas are dangerous and even disastrous.

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By Barry Rubin

The Middle East is in a new era, very different from the politics and strategic situation we have been used to for so long.

For 55 years the region has lived under Arab nationalist dominance. Every Arab regime, except perhaps Sudan, is Arab nationalist, governed by that basic system and world view.

Of course, these regimes have governed badly, not keeping pledges to unite the Arab world, minimize Western influence, destroy Israel, or bring rapid social and economic progress. Still, they know how to stay in power.

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By Barry Rubin

“We must once again restore the Israeli army’s deterrence, because there is no other way,” explains Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Quite right. The place to start is Syria.

Israel’s strategic policy toward Syria should be based on two simple, basic principles:

1. Israel should make the Syrians believe it wants to see the current regime there overthrown even if it has no intention of making this happen or even really wants that outcome.

2. Israel should make clear that if there is a future Hizballah attack leading to a war like last summer’s that Syria, not Lebanon, will be the main target of retaliation.

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By Barry Rubin

The world was shocked by Hamas’s violent takeover of the Gaza Strip, and the damage done to any hope for peace or regional stability is generally recognized. But a second, even more serious, extremist takeover is in the works for which Western inaction would bear far more responsibility.

This time the victim would be Lebanon and the perpetrator is Hizballah, backed by Syria and Iran.

Today, Lebanon is ruled by a Christian-Sunni Muslim-Druze coalition determined to maintain a moderate and independent Lebanon. This partnership arose after Syria assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in February 2005, coming out of a mass movement which successfully demanded the Syrian withdrawal after two decades in which Lebanon was looted as a satellite state by its next-door neighbor.

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By Jonathan Spyer

The Hamas coup that took place in Gaza last week is an event of historic importance. For the first time in the region, Islamist fighters took on the internationally recognised forces of a western-subsidised Arab nationalist client - and beat them hands down. Fatah was revealed to be the empty, corrupted shell that most Palestinians and many observers of Palestinian politics have known it to be for a long time. The implications of the bloody putsch in tiny, crowded Gaza have not yet presented themselves in full. But it is already possible to make a number of observations, and draw some tentative conclusions.

Three observations:

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By Nimrod Raphaeli

INTRODUCTION

Syria’s economy, which is predominantly state-controlled, has been characterized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a “stable but stagnant economy.”[1] This characterization reflects, on the one hand, political stability and the absence of major external shocks and, on the other hand, the failure of the narrowly-based political establishment to implement extensive economic reforms to move the country into the direction of the global market. In the words of Dr. Nabil Sukkar, one of Syria’s leading economists and a former World Bank economist, the decision makers in Syria are “scared of taking the plunge.” Syria’s introduction into the global economy would mean that the small ruling elite “could loosen its grip on power and threaten its privileges.”[2] Under 50 years of Ba’th Party rule, the Syrian economy has remained an old-fashioned, inefficient, and heavily regulated socialist command economy–presided over by a quasi-totalitarian regime characterized by political repression and by large scale corruption at the highest levels of government.

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Interview with Barry Rubin, by Michael J. Totten

Michael Totten has conducted an interview on his blog with Barry Rubin regarding his new book, The Truth about Syria, which is a detailed examination of that extremely important country in the news, including being America’s main Arab state opponent in the Middle East. The interview, it is at: http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001458.html. Following is the full text:

Question 1: Your new book is called The Truth about Syria. For those who haven’t yet read your book, tell us, what’s the truth about Syria? Give us the short version.

To begin with, to understand Syria–like other regional forces–one must first examine the nature of the regime and its real interests. The way to do this is not to cite the latest interview or op-eds by Syrian leaders or propagandists in the Western media or what one of them told some naïve Western “useful idiot” who traveled to Damascus but rather to look at what the Syrian rulers say among themselves, what they do, how they structure the regime and perceive of their interests.

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