By Heymi Bahar*

The July 2007 Turkish parliamentary elections were a major victory for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), entrenching it in power. By the same token, the historic center-right parties virtually disappeared, the left stagnated, and the number of nationalist MHP and independent Kurdish members increased. This article lays out the reasons both for the AKP’s success as well as the performance of other forces.

Following the Turkish Parliament’s failure to select a new president in an April 27, 2007 session, the decision was made that early elections be held on July 22, 2007 (rather than in October). The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) had named Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as its candidate, rejecting proposals by the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to choose a non-partisan, mutually accepted figure. Following the decision of CHP and other parties to boycott the voting session, the issue was taken to the Turkish Constitutional Court. CHP leader Deniz Baykal argued that there had not been 367 members present to start the first round of voting. While the court agreed with Baykal, some charged that this was a political rather than judicial decision^[1].

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Turkey’s Islamist ruling party is trying to edit the country’s constitution, redefining “women as a vulnerable group needing protection:”

…The current constitution in Turkey obliges the government to ensure equality for all - a clause that women’s groups fought hard to include.

The new draft removes that, describing women instead as a vulnerable group in need of special protection. …

Turkish women’s rights groups are protesting, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to prevent the changes:

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By Barry Rubin

Turks of every political position tell me the same story to explain their situation: to cook a live frog you don’t put it in a pot on a high flame. You put it in cool water and raise the temperature very slowly. This is what’s happening in Turkey.

International media coverage of the July 22 Turkish parliamentary election repeats endlessly that the victorious Justice and Development (AK) party is really moderate now. Despite Islamist roots, they say, it is now a centrist party mainly concerned with Turkey becoming a European Union (EU) member and having a prosperous economy.

Certainly, such is the image the party has projected for its five years in power. Precisely because half of Turkish voters were convinced that AK had no Islamist intentions they voted for it. The economy is doing well. Turkey might benefit from having a system more balanced regarding religion.

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By Barry Rubin

*Is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) going to make Turkey Islamist or not?

Which path the victorious party of the July 22 voting will take the country down is the main question Professor Barry Rubin asks while evaluating the situation after a suspenseful election process.

Rubin, director of the Global Research for International Affairs Center, a research center located at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya (IDC), said the AK Party, which won 47 percent of the vote in the July 22 election and will have almost two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, is a pragmatic, conservative and business-oriented moderate party despite its roots as an Islamic-oriented one.

However, he added that in societal terms, the party probably is up to transforming Turkey from a secular into a more Islamic society.

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By Barry Rubin

Answer A: In political terms, the Justice and Development (AK) party which won 47 percent of the votes in Turkey’s July 22 elections and will have almost two-thirds of the parliament seats is a pragmatic, conservative, business-oriented moderate party despite its roots as an Islamic-oriented one.

Answer B: In societal terms, the Justice and Development (AK) party is probably transforming Turkey from a secular into a more Islamic society, with a big effect on the status of women, the situation of minorities, and Turkey’s foreign policy.

Both statements are true. And this is the point many observers are missing in the great change signaled by the election results.

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By Linda Michaud-Emin and Heymi Bahar

Having won Turkey’s July 22 parliamentary elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is set once again to form a single-party government. This triumph is especially impressive as it is the first time in a half-century that a government party wins reelection. Ironically, this means that while the July 22 elections have taken place amidst so much controversy they are in fact producing the most stable government in many years.

In recent years, the Turkish government has been plagued by an on-going battle between Deniz Baykal’s opposition socialist Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the AKP on the issue of secularism. When it was time for parliament to choose a president on April 27, 2007, the AKP selected its number-two leader, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, for the post. In turn, the CHP boycotted the balloting, thus blocking it. As a result, parliamentary elections were moved up to an earlier date. With street demonstrations protesting AKP’s Islam-oriented program, it seemed as if the opposition might seriously challenge the government. Instead, the government did very well.

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by Kamal Said Qadir*

Many Western commentators say Iraqi Kurdistan is a beacon of democracy in an otherwise uncertain Iraq.[1] As much of the rest of Iraq descends into violence if not civil war, it is tempting for U.S. officials to point to the placidity of northern Iraq as a rare success. In many ways, Iraqi Kurdistan’s progress since 1991 is remarkable. But while Kurdish officials and their growing coterie of U.S. consultants praise the region’s progress, an increasing culture of corruption, nepotism, and abuse-of-power has both eroded democracy and, increasingly, stability.

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By Barry Rubin

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive/But to be young was very heaven!” thus wrote the English poet William Wordsworth of the French Revolution. In France itself and Turkey today, there may be more modest revolutions in the offing, brought about at the ballot box.

Back in 1789, Wordsworth continued, “Oh! times, In which the meager, stale, forbidding ways/Of custom, law, and statute, took at once/ The attraction of a country in romance!” Romanticism, however, is not on the side of these potential changes. On the contrary, they are revolts of pragmatism against revolutionary romanticism. Though Wordsworth had that point covered, too, describing a moment, “When Reason seemed the most to assert her rights.”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Turkey’s constitutional crisis over electing a new president has stirred passions. Approximately 50,000 Turks attended a rally Sunday to voice their support for secularism. On April 29, “More than a million Turks rallied here [Istanbul] … in support of secular democracy.” Today, somebody set off a bomb in Ankara. Was it related to the constitutional crisis? Was it Kurdish separatists? Islamic militants? From the Beeb:

…The blast occurred during evening rush hour at the entrance to a shopping centre in the district of Ulus. …

Unconfirmed reports suggest an explosive device may have been left at a nearby bus stop. …

Much of the front of one building was ripped off by the blast at the Anafartalar shopping centre.

TV footage showed several people lying seriously injured on the pavement surrounded by piles of concrete and glass. Other people, possibly passers-by, were hurt by flying glass.

“There was a sudden explosion, everything turned to dust. I could hear people screaming,” eyewitness Cenk Yedier told AP news agency. …

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

…The staunchly secular elite of Turkey believes a president whose wife wears an Islamic headscarf would have Ataturk turning in his grave.

- BBC

“Elite?” Hmmm… Approximately 50,000 Turks attended a rally yesterday to voice their support for secularism. All elitists? On April 29, “More than a million Turks rallied here [Istanbul] Sunday in support of secular democracy.” Daniel Pipes doesn’t use the term “elite” to describe the protesters. Rather, he calls them “moderate Muslims.” More specifically, Pipes asks:

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by Daniel Pipes*

My visit to Istanbul this week comes in the midst of the greatest challenge to the Turkish secular republic since its creation in 1923.

Founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the wreckage of the Ottoman Empire, the republic came into existence at about the high-water mark of Western confidence, when it appeared that European ways would become the global template. Atatürk imposed a dizzying array of changes, including European laws, the Latin alphabet, the Gregorian calendar, personal last names, hats instead of fezzes, monogamy, Sunday as the day of rest, a ban on dervishes, the legal right to drink alcohol, and Turkish as a liturgical language.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

Turkey’s constitutional crisis over electing a new (Islamist) president has stirred passions. “…More than a million moderate Muslims in five marches protested the bid of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to take over the presidency of the republic.” A Turkish pundit, İbrahim Karagül, found a link here on netwmd.com entitled, “Will Turkey Have an Islamist President?” by Michael Rubin. Karagül blogged Rubin’s article in a piece called, “Ak Parti’ye neocon tuzağı!,” which roughly translates to “AKP neocon trap/decoy!” Thousands of Turks read Rubin’s article, which I hope is a sign that political discourse is alive and well in Turkey. Unfortunately, several readers zeroed in on the fact that Rubin is Jewish. As usual, the “Zionists” were accused of interfering in Turkey’s politics (see reader comments, e.g., “you are disgusting” and “Fuck you and fuck israil”). Rather than extrapolating Turkish public opinion based on some wacky comment-trolls, I decided to see if I could find out what’s going on in the Turkish mind. I found an opinion poll from the Pew Research Center, “Can Secular Democracy Survive in Turkey?”

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by Daniel Pipes*

“Moderate Unicorns,” huffed a reader, responding to my recent plea that Western states bolster moderate Muslims. Dismissing their existence as a myth, he notes that non-Muslims “are still waiting for moderates to stand and deliver, identifying and removing extremist thugs from their mosques and their communities.”

It’s a valid skepticism and a reasonable demand. Recent events in Pakistan and Turkey, however, prove that moderate Muslims are no myth.

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

I had feared that Turkey’s constitutional crisis over electing a new (Islamist) president may have led to military (secular) intervention. It seems my fears have been allayed, short-term:

Turkey’s parliament has failed for a second time to elect the Islamist-rooted governing party’s candidate for president, Abdullah Gul.

Mr Gul, the only nominee, withdrew his candidacy after the vote was rendered invalid by an opposition boycott.

But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP), with his “autocratic tendencies,” has not given up his dream of steadily moving Turkey away from its secular roots, planted by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and towards Islamist “ideals:”

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By Andrew L. Jaffee

The question of the day: Will Turkey have an Islamist president? This question is important because of Turkey’s strategic position in the Middle East, its potential accession to the EU, and perhaps most importantly, whether the current conflict between the country’s Islamists and secularists can be settled peacefully and democratically. Yes, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP), with his “autocratic tendencies,” was elected democratically, but he has been steadily moving Turkey away from its secular roots, planted by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and towards Islamist “ideals.” To reframe the question: Can there be an Islamic democracy? In Islam’s current state, I doubt it. We may end up seeing Turkey’s secular military intervening rather undemocratically, but necessarily.

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