by Ilan Berman*

Are sanctions capable of derailing Tehran’s nuclear drive? Some skeptics reject such measures altogether, preferring to deal with Tehran by either accommodation or containment.[1] Others point to the spotty historical record of sanctions in altering state behavior in arguing that they will similarly fall short of forcing the ayatollahs to rethink their long-standing nuclear ambitions.[2] For example, sanctions were found to be successful in only a third of the 105 instances in which they were applied between World War I and the end of the Cold War.[3] As the past year has shown, however, Tehran may well turn out to be the exception to the rule — but only if the Obama administration (and Western governments more generally) make swift and skillful use of the economic and strategic means at their disposal.

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by Sterling Jensen*

The Middle East political storm of early 2011 has had an interesting impact on Iraq. Though the government was confronted with almost daily demonstrations, which led to a number of high profile resignations and the use of force to suppress political dissent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki felt sufficiently confident to boast that “Iraq has become the most stable country in the region.”[1] While this may seem a bold claim given the recent past, Maliki is not alone in showing confidence in Iraq’s prospects. The Sadrists, Kurds, and leaders of the primarily Sunni Iraqiya bloc have been equally upbeat about the country’s prospects while many Iraqi insiders believe that their battle-torn country will not only weather the instability but will also serve as a model for democracy.

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By Barry Rubin

The gap between dominant Western perceptions of the Middle East and the region’s reality is dangerously wide. While the “Arab Spring” is celebrated as an advance for moderation and democracy, in fact the advance is going to revolutionary Islamists. Developments in Turkey and Egypt especially threaten to plunge the Middle East back into an era of conflict, instability, and the worst threats to Western interests in decades.

There are several things very much predictable about the future of the Middle East area during the next year. First, on June 12, 2011, Turkey will have an election. That election will probably be won by the government, whether or not it gets a two-thirds majority. The current rulers will interpret this as a signal to take a much tougher line toward Israel and the United States. It is possible that the extent of the increase of Turkey’s enmity toward Israel after that election will astonish the world.

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On this and every day, let us remember, honor, and thank those brave Americans who gave life and/or limb to preserve freedom for America and many other nations.

By Barry Rubin

Amr Moussa, probably Egypt’s next president, has given a comprehensive picture of his views, a foretaste of the likely policies of someone about to become the Arab world’s most powerful person. One thing he said is particularly important and shocking. Read on.

Moussa, former Egyptian foreign minister (1991-2001) and head of the Arab League until his resignation takes effect on May 15, is a figure from the Egyptian establishment and the old regime. But which aspect of the old regime: that of the centrist Husni Mubarak, the moderate Anwar al-Sadat, or the radical Arab nationalist Gamal Abd al Nasser?

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By Fern Sidman

Now that the hoopla over the successful United States “hit” on arch terrorist Osama bin Laden has begun to fade into the annals of history, the stark realization that the US and the free world are still bereft of a concrete plan of action to stem the tide of al-Qaeda terrorism is beginning to set in. Having spent close to 10 years assiduously tracking down the elusive 9/11 mastermind, we hasten to remind the CIA, along with the various and sundry intelligence networks, that the task of eradicating Islamic radicals bent on global domination demands replication of the kind of “muscle” that bagged bin Laden.

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By Gary Gerofsky

Ayn Rand wrote a book which I read long ago called The Virtue of Selfishness which makes clear that altruism has many flaws and that acting in one’s own self-interest benefits not only the individual but, in the end, all society. I was intrigued by the book because it convincingly broke some sacrosanct ethical guidelines that had been drilled into my own moral conscience. Unnaturally and selflessly sacrificing one’s own beliefs and interests to benefit others can sometimes backfire and do damage to both the individual, those whom the person is trying to help and those who are part of his/her life.

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by Raymond Ibrahim*

Last week an Iraqi Muslim scholar issued a fatwa that, among other barbarities, asserts that “it is permissible to spill the blood of Iraqi Christians.” Inciting as the fatwa is, it is also redundant. While last October’s Baghdad church attack which killed some sixty Christians is widely known — actually receiving some MSM coverage — the fact is, Christian life in Iraq has been a living hell ever since U.S. forces ousted the late Saddam Hussein in 2003.

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By Alexander Maistrovoy

Russia is the ally of deadly enemies of Israel. Senior Russian officials have met with the political leader of Hamas, Moscow cooperates with Teheran and supplies Syria with rockets, knowing quite well that some of these weapons end up in the hands of Hezbollah and Hamas.

It is hardly possible to define the Putin-Medvedev regime as a developed democracy. It is a kind of Byzantine form of government with a democratic facade.

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By Jubin Afshar

Why would Iraq’s Prime Minister Al-Maliki order a heavy assault on 3400 unarmed, defenseless Iranian dissidents in a refugee settlement northeast of Baghdad? Reports reaching news agencies confirm that at least 31 Iranian dissidents have been killed and hundreds wounded. Medical supplies are being blocked as the critically wounded continue to die.

Ashraf has been home to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, the most steadfast opposition force to Iran’s ruling theocracy since the late 1980’s, when the group’s thousands of members and supporters moved to Iraq. The residents of Ashraf have organized resistance to the Iranian regime since then. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Ashraf residents disarmed in a deal with the US military that pledged in return to protect them. Ashraf residents are internationally “Protected Persons” based on the Fourth Geneva Convention.

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President Obama just vetoed an anti-Israeli UN resolution, but screwed Israel anyway. Palestinians, whom sponsored the resolution, have planned a public tantrum in response — not sure why, as they’re always throwing tantrums, and most sane people have become desensitized to such outbursts. Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post summarizes Obama’s continued, idiotic incompetence (and that of many Jewish groups):

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by Raymond Ibrahim*

Recent comments by U.S. officials on the threat posed by “radicalized” American Muslims are troubling, both for their domestic and international implications. Attorney General Eric Holder states that “the threat has changed … to worrying about people in the United States, American citizens — raised here, born here, and who for whatever reason, have decided that they are going to become radicalized and take up arms against the nation in which they were born.” The situation is critical enough to compel incoming head of the House Committee on Homeland Security Peter King to do all he can “to break down the wall of political correctness and drive the public debate on Islamic radicalization.”

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by Raymond Ibrahim*

Recent remarks by Attorney General Eric Holder on the threat posed by “radicalized” American Muslims are revealing — not just because of what they say regarding the domestic situation, but for their international implications as well. According to Holder:

“[T]he threat is real, the threat is different, the threat is constant. The threat has changed … to worrying about people in the United States, American citizens — raised here, born here, and who for whatever reason, have decided that they are going to become radicalized and take up arms against the nation in which they were born. It is one of the things that keeps me up at night. You didn’t worry about this even two years ago — about individuals, about Americans, to the extent that we now do.” Holder noted that while he was confident in the United States’ counter-terrorism efforts, Americans “have to be prepared for potentially bad news…. The terrorists only have to be successful once.”

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A briefing by Lee Smith*

Lee Smith is a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations. On December 28, Mr. Smith addressed the Middle East Forum via conference call on the implications of Wikileaks regarding the Middle East, and their significance for U.S. policy in the region, a topic he has focused on in recent articles.

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by Phyllis Chesler

Although he was loyal to a Middle Eastern country, the American military hired him as an intelligence officer and translator anyway — partly because he knew an important Middle East language. Nevertheless, he was a poor choice. This man passed classified documents to “insurgents” in Iraq who were battling American forces; he also had conversations with members of Al Qaeda and kept their documents on his computer.

His name — one of five aliases — is Noureddine Malki. He pretended to be from Lebanon, the persecuted son of a Muslim father and a Christian mother, and on this basis allegedly sought and received asylum in America, naturalized citizenship, and a job as an Arabic translator for the Army.  He received top secret clearance and was working in Iraq where he took bribes from various Sunni sheikhs and passed classified information on to them.

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