by Aaron Menenberg*

For decades now, Western governments have been seeking to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions through a standard stick-and-carrot policy combining incentives for reforms with financial sanctions for retrenchments. This approach has failed primarily because it lacks appreciation of Iranian history and Islamic values as well as the extent of the regime’s religious convictions and its attendant goals. Yet as Tehran experiences a slow but significant weakening of its governing blocs with many young Iranians free of the virulent anti-U.S. sentiments that fed the Islamic Revolution,[1] positive gains can be made if the Western capitals properly understand and act upon the Iranian reality.

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by Ilan Berman*

Are sanctions capable of derailing Tehran’s nuclear drive? Some skeptics reject such measures altogether, preferring to deal with Tehran by either accommodation or containment.[1] Others point to the spotty historical record of sanctions in altering state behavior in arguing that they will similarly fall short of forcing the ayatollahs to rethink their long-standing nuclear ambitions.[2] For example, sanctions were found to be successful in only a third of the 105 instances in which they were applied between World War I and the end of the Cold War.[3] As the past year has shown, however, Tehran may well turn out to be the exception to the rule — but only if the Obama administration (and Western governments more generally) make swift and skillful use of the economic and strategic means at their disposal.

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By Fern Sidman

Introduced by Pastor John Hagee, the founder and chairman of Christians United For Israel (CUFI), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a gathering of thousands of ardent Christian Zionists via satellite from Jerusalem on Tuesday afternoon, July 19th at a special “Middle East Briefing” session at the sixth annual CUFI national summit in Washington.

Greeted with over 10 minutes of applause and enthusiastic cheers, Mr. Netanyahu extended his appreciation to Pastor Hagee for his, “unwavering support and commitment for Israel,” and for those Christian supporters of Israel who have the, “courage to stand up and speak the truth.” Sharing the same sentiments that he did in his speech before the Joint Sessions of Congress in late May, Netanyahu said, “Israel is not what’s wrong with the Middle East; it’s what is right about it. Israel is a country that draws from the same well as you. Both America and Israel were forged on the same principles, the same ideas and so we have shared values and common hopes for the future.”

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By Fern Sidman

John Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, had some strong words for the world body on Monday evening, July 18th as he delivered a broad-based foreign policy speech during the Chairman’s Club dinner at the sixth annual Christians United For Israel (CUFI) national summit in Washington, DC.

Speaking from the podium of the Washington Convention Center, Ambassador Bolton addressed the upcoming vote, scheduled for September at the United Nations General Assembly in which the Palestinian Authority will call for nation states to cast their vote for the establishment of an independent state.

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By Gary Gerofsky

As Iran races to the nuclear finish line, showing off its capabilities with long-range nuclear-tip-ready missiles and every other kind of system that we thought in years past was beyond their capability, we must ask ourselves what will change when next year Iran rules the Middle East by dint of their regional technological nuclear advantage.

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By Gary Gerofsky

With Iran about to produce one or more nuclear bombs; Syria in chaos with little Hitler Assad killing his own people to keep Syria in the hands of his family; Yemen about to go to Al Qaeda and tribes that would coddle terrorists; Egypt to become a Muslim Brotherhood mega state more interested in war than peace; “Fatas” (the Fatah-Hamas alliance) waiting for Obama to deliver them their “contiguous” state at Israel’s expense and without any preconditions; a nuclear Pakistan controlled by Taliban-ISI* command; Lebanon virtually in the hands of Iran’s Hezbollah; Iraq breaking up with major portions going to Iran; and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states wanting to become nuclear to go on the offensive against Iran or Israel or both, I suggest that the world get behind Israel in a big way before it is too late. (*The ISI — Inter-Services Intelligence — is Pakistan’s national intelligence service.)

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By Fern Sidman

In an address aimed at placating his disgruntled Jewish supporters, President Barack Obama told his audience of over 10,000 at the annual AIPAC policy conference in Washington on Sunday that “a strong and secure Israel is in the interest of the United States and the bond between our two vibrant democracies must be nurtured.”

Taking intense criticism from pro-Israel supporters since he delivered a significant Middle East policy speech on Thursday in which he called for Israel to negotiate a future Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. He also referred to Palestinians living under Israeli “occupation” but sought to heal wounds by enumerating actions taken by the US to foster Israel’s security.

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By Jonathan Spyer

US President Barack Obama’s recent decision to appoint a new ambassador to Damascus is further proof positive of the effectiveness of the strategy pursued by Syria over the last half decade. It also showcases the sense that the current US administration appears to be navigating without a compass in its Middle East diplomacy.

The appointment of experienced and highly regarded regional hand Robert Ford to the embassy in Damascus is not quite the final burial of the policy to “isolate” Syria. The 2003 Syria Accountability Act and its sanctions remain in effect. But with Syria now in possession of a newly minted American ambassador, in supposedly pivotal negotiations with Saudi Arabia over the Special Tribunal in Lebanon, with its alliance with Iran intact, having repaired relations with Iraq, and in continued, apparently cost-free defiance of the International Atomic Energy Agency over inspections of its nuclear sites, the office of President Bashar Assad could be forgiven for feeling slightly smug.

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by Dennis Mitzner and Ariel Solomon*

As recent decades have been plagued by Islamic terrorism and wars in the Middle East, Islam has moved to the center of Western political discourse. And Daniel Pipes has been at the center of this debate, providing tens of millions with his insightful analysis. This analysis has made Dr. Pipes an authority on matters related to Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. In addition to providing analysis through his personal website and the Middle East Forum, which he founded, Pipes travels around the world, speaking at universities, think tanks, and other venues. His appearances often provoke disruptions and angry protests, while simultaneously arousing fervent support.

We sat down with him to talk about Israel, Iran, Barack Obama’s presidency, and other timely issues. He also reminisced about a debate — which he calls a highlight of his career — in London in 2007 in which he and a British neo-conservative, Douglas Murray, defeated their opponents, London Mayor Ken Livingstone and Salma Yaqoob, a local Respect-Party politician from Birmingham.

Pipes has tough words for the Israeli political leadership. According to him, Israel is simply trying to cope as crises occur; its leadership lacks a strategic vision or a plan to deal with basic security issues. In Pipes’ view, Israel has become a dramatic opposite of what the young country was in the 1950s and after, when it was led by a talented leadership with a vision of Israel’s long term interests.

The interview took place in Herzliya, Israel on September 16, 2010.

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By Jonathan Spyer

The diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks earlier this week confirm that the key strategic process taking place in the Middle East is the push for regional dominance by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The documents show that the Iranian nuclear program is only the most worrisome element of a broader effort, as there is additional evidence of Iranian involvement and interference in political processes across the region.

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Interview by the Middle East Quarterly*

Ali Allawi, Iraq’s first post-Saddam civilian minister of defense, was born in Baghdad in 1947. He was educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the London School of Economics, and Harvard University. On top of a long and successful career as a merchant banker, he has held visiting posts in a number of academic institutions, including the International Institute for Islamic Thought and Civilization in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, founded by the Islamic philosopher Syed Naquib al-Attas, and the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Oxford University.

During the 1980s and the 1990s, Allawi was a prominent member of the London-based Iraqi opposition to Saddam Hussein’s regime, and in 2002, was one of the drafters of a declaration of Iraqi Shiites,[1] a statement that helped lay the groundwork for Saddam’s ouster.

Allawi returned to Iraq in September 2003 after forty-five years of exile and was made minister of trade in the Interim Iraq Governing Council, followed by a year’s stint as minister of defense. In January 2005, he was elected to Iraq’s Transitional National Assembly, and three months later, was appointed minister of finance in the Transitional Government headed by Ibrahim al-Jaafari. He held this post until May 2006 when he returned to private life.

Author of two prize winning books — The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace[2] and The Crisis of Islamic Civilization[3] — Allawi is currently a senior visiting fellow at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Efraim Karsh interviewed him in London by telephone on July 26, 2010.

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People keep hearing the term, “Wikileaks.” It is of greatest importance that the public understand what this term means, and digest its tremendously ominous implications: Israel and several Arab states are finding common cause in opposing Iran’s nuclear threat. Here’s what the The Israel Project says, but you should read the whole essay:

Leaked Documents Show Iranian Threat to Arab World, Europe

• Saudia Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, UAE alarmed at Iranian nuclear program
• Arab states privately agree with Israel on Iranian threat
• Iran may have missiles that could threaten European capitals

Washington, Nov. 26 – Arab states feel gravely threatened by Iran’s nuclear weapons program and several have privately urged the United States to use all means including military action if necessary to stop it, according to classified diplomatic documents made public by Wikileaks.

Among the 250,000 cables leaked to media organizations, several of the most dramatic illustrate how Arab leaders regard the Iranian nuclear program as a deadly threat to their security and distrust and fear the regime in Tehran.

According to an account published in The Guardian, Saudi King Abdullah repeatedly urged the United States to destroy the Iranian program. …

“The cables reveal how Iran’s ascent has unified Israel and many longtime Arab adversaries — notably the Saudis — in a common cause,” The New York Times said. “The United States had put together a largely silent front of Arab states whose positions on sanctions and a potential attack looked much like Israel’s.” …

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By Barry Rubin

Editor’s note: See “What are the Wikileaks?”

In all the excitement over the Wikileaks story, I want to remind people that there’s another big story being ignored. You will be reading about it in the mass media in two or three months.

The Obama Administration has messed up its attempts to get Israel-Palestinian negotiations going. The whole misplaced emphasis on a freeze of construction on settlements–something this government initiated–continues to put a freeze on talks. The presentation of the proposed three-month-long freeze to Israel was done so badly that nobody is quite sure what’s in it.

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by Daniel Pipes*

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

It occurred to me that I should try and fit what I know into the mission of this organisation, so I will try something new. It will be a certain level of abstraction and I invite you in the Q&A to become far more specific.

I am a historian of the Muslim world and, in addition to the day-to-day issues that come up, I look at this civilisational unit as a whole. That’s what I’ll do now.

To start with, the Islamic religion prevails in majority-Muslim countries stretching from Senegal to Indonesia, and is not simply a Middle Eastern phenomenon. Muslim people can now be found in substantial numbers in Europe, North America, Latin America, and indeed, Oceania.

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